NOTAS Y DEBATES DE ACTUALIDAD
UTOPÍA Y PRAXIS LATINOAMERICANA. AÑO: 23, n° 82 (JULIO-SEPTIEMBRE), 2018, pp. 386-394
REVISTA INTERNACIONAL DE FILOSOFÍA Y TEORÍA SOCIAL
CESA-FCES-UNIVERSIDAD DEL ZULIA. MARACAIBO-VENEZUELA.
ISSN 1315-5216 / ISSN-e: 2477-9555
Trends and Patterns of Public Interest to Big Data
in International Community
Tendencias y pautas de interés público para el big data en la comunidad internacional
Artur I. PETROV
ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2634-0567
ID-Scopus: 57191265004
artIgpetrov@yandex.ru
Institute of Transport, Tyumen Industrial University, Tyumen, Russian Federation
Daria A. PETROVA
Institute of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin, Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation
Victor I. KOLESOV
Construction Institute, Tyumen Industrial University, Tyumen, Russian Federation
This paper is filed in Zenodo:
DOI: http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1512562
ABSTRACT
The issues of analysis of the dynamics of changes in public interest to the topic of Big Data in the world, the US and Russia are considered in the article. A research tool is a regression analysis of Google search analytics on the monthly activity of Internet users in the search for information on this topic. It is shown that, despite the relatively lower level of requests for Big Data in Russia, the growth rate of interest in this topic in Russia is higher than in the US. Phase analysis showed that the process under study is unstable.
Кeywords: Analytical data; information technology; regression models; social interest. |
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RESUMEN
Las cuestiones de análisis de la dinámica de los cambios de interés público en el tema de Big Data en el mundo, los Estados Unidos y Rusia, se consideran en el artículo. Una herramienta de investigación es un análisis de regresión de Google Search analytics sobre la actividad mensual de los usuarios de Internet en la búsqueda de información sobre este tema. Se muestra que, a pesar del nivel relativamente más bajo de solicitudes de Big Data en Rusia, la tasa de crecimiento del interés en este tema en Rusia es mayor que en los Estados Unidos. El análisis de fase mostró que el proceso en estudio es inestable.
Palabras clave: Datos analíticos; tecnología de la información; modelos de regresión; interés social.
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Recibido: 13-07-2018 ● Aceptado: 25-08-2018
Utopía y Praxis Latinoamericana publishes under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported license (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0). For more information go to https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/deed
In the modern world, the dynamics of technological change is extremely high. Annually there are innovative developments, which have all the chances for promotion due to venture funds (Agneeswaran, 2012; Avdeeva, 2016; Chernyak, 2011; Meyer-Shenberger, 2014). Not all of them in the end are successfully implemented; many ideas turn out to be foneys (Bhadani and Jothimani, 2016; Boyd and Crawford, 2012). In this regard, there was a need to track and then classify the stages of the life cycle "Idea – its study – investment – development – rush support – practical sobering – getting to the fork "development of techniques for practical use" or "oblivion". This is what the research and consulting company Gartner (Cukier, 2010; Gartner, 2015), specializing in information technology markets, does.
In the annual Maturity Surveys of IT-technologies prepared by Gartner specialists since 1995, Big Data was at the stage of a technological trigger for about 5 years (2008 – 2012), in 2013, they were on Peak of Inflated Expectation and since mid-2014 have entered the phase of getting rid of illusions (Trough of Disillusionment), when the shortcomings of technology are revealed, and the loss of novelty does not contribute to enthusiastic publications, and the community notes disappointment with the new technology.
For example, in an analytical review of 2015, Gartner no longer represents the Big Data technology on the Hype Cycle chart (Figure 1) (Gartner, 2015) even at the Trough of Disillusionment stage. According to the theory of technology development (Hype Cycle chart), then Big Data can wait for either a phase of oblivion, or the stages of Slope of Enlightenment and Plateau of Productivity (maturity of technology). The question arises, how fair is the disappointment (as of summer 2015) of Gartner's experts in Big Data technologies? Does this general disappointment in Big Data correspond to the situation in the Russian IT sector? The hypothesis that is proposed to be checked by query analytics in Google Trends can be formulated as following: "With the overall relatively lower level of development of Big Data technologies in Russia at the moment, interest in this technology in our country is higher than in the US and in the world".
Figure 2 represents a diagram of the change in the frequency of queries of the phrase "Big Data" in the Google search engine in the world in the period from January, 2012 to September, 2017 (Google Trends).
Figure 2: Screenshot of the screen mode of Google Trends to identify the frequency of Big Data requests in Google in the world: A – time series data on the frequency of Big Data queries in Google; B – large scale of data
A
B
Based on similar data obtained for the US and Russia, regression models (Borovikov, 2003) were constructed that identify the correlation of interest in the Big Data topic in the US and Russia with respect to global trends (Figure 3).
Figure 3: Regression models identifying the correlation of interest in the Big Data topic in the Google search system in the US and Russia regarding global trends
The models shown in Figure 3 show that the interest in the Big Data topic in the US is much higher than the analogues typical for Russia. However, there are two important features of the situation.
· At the initial stage, the frequency of querying Google for "Big Data" data in the United States exceeded the frequency of requests in the world (in 2012-2014), but since a certain time (2015), this trend ended, the situation leveled off, and today there are already signs of a turnaround.
· For Russia, there is a slow but steady increase in interest in the Big Data topic, although relative to the global level, the coefficient of interest in the topic in Russia is now equal to 0.3.
Comparative time series of the interest characteristic of the Big Data topic in Google for the US and Russia are presented in Figure 4. Regarding the maximum interest (100 points) to the Big Data topic, which was shown in the US in October 2014, today there is a drop in the number of search requests on the Internet by about 20 – 30%. In Russia, interest in this topic is continuously growing, and the growth rate of such interest, expressed by the coefficient (1), is already significantly higher than the analog for the United States (Figure 5).
Figure 4: Time series characteristics of frequency of queries for the phrase Big Data in the Google search system in the US and Russia in 2012 – 2017
(1)
Where:
– coefficient of interest growth rate to the topic in a certain period of time;
– the level of interest in the Google search engine to the topic, taking into account the highest score for a certain region and the time period. 100 points mean the highest level of popularity of the request;
– the level of interest to the topic in the Google search engine in January, 2012 (the initial period of tracking the frequency of user requests).
Figure 5: Time series of the change in characteristic in relation to the Big Data topic in the USA and Russia in 2012-2017
By the middle of 2014, the value of in Russia has reached the value of an analogue typical for the USA (about 3.5); in subsequent years, this indicator in Russia exceeds the analogue for the US and today there is already a two-fold gap between Russia and the US on this indicator (6 in Russia against 3 in the US). The graph in Figure 5 really shows that in the US, interest in the Big Data topic began to decline around the spring of 2015, which is in line with Gartner's data (Figure 1) (the phase of getting rid of the illusions Trough of Disillusionment on the Hype Cycle chart).
The model of changing the correlation of the level of interest in the Big Data in Russia in 2012-2017 in relation to the analogue in the USA is also interesting (Figure 6).
Figure 6: Model of correlation of the level of interest in the Big Data topic in Russia in 2012-2017 in relation to the analogue in the USA
Formally, this model is exponential. The coefficient of determination of the model R2 = 0.448 is relatively low, although the value of the Fisher test F = 54.27 exceeds the tabulated one, which allows us to speak about the validity of using an exponential model for describing the process under study. Visual analysis shows that at the level of interest to the topic in the US = 70 and interest in the topic in Russia = 20 (approximately at the beginning of 2014), the model ceases to be exponential.
In order to find an explanation for this phenomenon, a spline plot was constructed (Figure 7). Spline is a function that, together with several derivatives, is continuous on the whole given interval [a, b], and on each partial interval [xi, xi+1] is an algebraic polynomial. In fact, the spline shows the trajectory of the process under study in the phase space (Borovikov, 2003).
Figure 7: Spline graph of the ratio of the level of interest to the Big Data topic in Russia in 2012 – 2017 in relation to the analogue in the USA: A – initial, for the entire period 01.2012-09.2017; B – final, two phases of the process of changing interest in the Big Data topic in Russia
Analysis of the spline graph shows that up to a certain point the process developed relatively stable (phase 1), but over time the process passed to phase 2, which can be described as the "phase of process uncertainty". Despite the seemingly steady growth of interest in the Big Data topic in Russia (Figure 4) and even relatively higher growth rates in Russia than in the US (Figure 5), the phase portrait of the process shows that in Russia today there are times of loss of understanding of Big Data technology benefits and there comes a stage of stagnation. After this, it is quite possible that there will be a degradation of interest in this topic in Russia (as has already happened in the US, as noted by Gartner experts).
CONCLUSION
Based on the results of the study, the following conclusions can be drawn.
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