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de la Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Políticas de la Universidad del Zulia
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Vol. 41, Nº 79 (2023), 542-566
IEPDP-Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Políticas - LUZ
State borders stability formation on the
conditions of response to migration crises
on the example of Ukraine
DOI: https://doi.org/10.46398/cuestpol.4179.37
Serhii Khalimon *
Volodymyr Kyrylenko **
Anatoliy Sitsinskyi ***
Liudmyla Litvin ****
Viktor Poliuk *****
Abstract
Based on personal participation in the special border operation
“Polissia”, the author’s team analyzed the actions of the Ukrainian
government in response to the potential risks of the migration crisis
* DoctorofJuridicalSciences,professor,scienticinterestsarerelatedtothestudyofnationalsecurity
problems in the sphere of the state border, operational and investigative activities, crime prevention.
Authorandco-authorofmore than120scientic, educationalandmethodologicalworks.With the
beginningofthefull-scaleinvasionofUkrainebytheRussianFederation,hewascalledupformilitary
service on mobilization, held the position of deputy head of the department of legal theory and criminal
procedural activity Bohdan Khmelnytskyi National Academy of the State Border Guard Service of
Ukraine, 29000, 46 Shevchenka, Khmelnytskyi, Ukraine. ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-
2998-7235. Email: halik_chernigov@ukr.net
** DoctorofMilitarySciences,professor,HonoredWorkerofScienceandTechnologyofUkraine,03168,
Kyiv,Povitrootskyprospect,bldg.6,Ukraine.ORCIDID:https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2206-1651.
Email: kirilenko09@ukr.net
*** Doctor of Sciences in Public Administration, Professor of Law, Colonel, Head of the Research
Department Bohdan Khmelnytskyi National Academy of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine.
Scienticinterests arerelatedto solvingthe problemsof ensuringnational securityanddefence of
Ukraine,implementation ofstate policyintheeldofstateborder security,reforming thesecurity
and defencesectorof Ukraine. He has experienceinmilitary service and in thetaxpolice, as well
as signicant experience in scientic-pedagogical, scientic-expert, information-analytical and
organizational activities. Author and co-author of more than 160 publications of a scientic and
educationalandmethodologicalnature.Hetrained22PhDsanddoctorintheeldofpedagogicaland
legal sciences, in public administration.29000, 46 Shevchenka, Khmelnytskyi, Ukraine. ORCID ID:
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3299-5677. Email: a.sitsinskiy@gmail.com
****CandidateofJuridicalSciences(PhD),docent,therangeofscienticinterestsisrelatedtothestudyof
forensic support of the state border protection bodies and methods of investigation of crimes related to
theviolationofthestateborder.Sheisauthorandco-authorofmorethan40scientic,educationaland
methodicalworks.Sheisatmilitaryservice,holdsthepositionofassociateprofessoroftheDepartment
ofLegalTheoryandCriminalProcedure.BohdanKhmelnytskyiNationalAcademyoftheStateBorder
Guard Service of Ukraine, 29000, 46 Shevchenka, Khmelnytskyi, Ukraine. ORCID ID: https://orcid.
org/0000-0003-2318-7085. Email: kapitly@ukr.net
***** Candidate of Pedagogic Sciences (PhD), senior researcher of the scientic research department,
therange ofscienticinterests isrelated tothestudy ofthe educationalprocess ofhighermilitary
educational institutions and the formation of professional readiness of future ocers Bohdan
Khmelnytskyi National Academy of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine 29000, 46 Shevchenka,
Khmelnytskyi, Ukraine. ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1737-7093. E-mail: poluyk@ukr.net
543
CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 41 Nº 79 (2023): 542-566
ontheUkrainian-Belarusianborderin2021.Theexperienceofmigration
crisis response of the EU member states (Poland, Lithuania, Latvia) in
2021wasanalyzed,aswellastheexperienceofmigrationcrisisresponse
in previous years (Balkan route). Proposals for improving organizational
aspects of conducting special border operations in order to overcome
migration crises at the state border have been substantiated. In addition,
a methodology has been developed that allows detecting the changes of
the situation in the border zone of national security, determining the time
periods of increase (decrease) of the degree of aggravation, forecasting the
time period of transition of the situation from the level of “aggravation” to
the level of “threat”. In the conclusions it is proposed to develop a concept
paper in the form of a strategy for the security and stability of state borders,
whichwillincludewaysofsolvingthematerialandtechnicalproblemsof
the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine.
Keywords: stability of state borders; migration crisis; national security;
refugees; migration policies.
Formación de la estabilidad de las fronteras estatales
en las condiciones de respuesta a las crisis migratorias a
partir del ejemplo de Ucrania
Resumen
Basándose en la participación personal en la operación fronteriza
especial «Polissia», el equipo del autor analizó las acciones del gobierno
ucraniano en respuesta a los riesgos potenciales de la crisis migratoria en
la frontera entre Ucrania y Bielorrusia en 2021. Se analizó la experiencia
de respuesta a crisis migratorias de los estados miembros de la Unión
Europea (Polonia, Lituania, Letonia) en 2021, así como la experiencia de
respuesta a crisis migratorias en años anteriores (ruta de los Balcanes). Se
han fundamentado las propuestas para mejorar los aspectos organizativos
delarealizacióndeoperacionesfronterizasespecialesconelndesuperar
las crisis migratorias en la frontera estatal. Además, se ha desarrollado una
metodología que permite detectar los cambios de la situación en la zona
fronteriza de la seguridad nacional, determinar los periodos de tiempo de
aumento (disminución) del grado de agravamiento, pronosticar el periodo
de tiempo de transición de la situación del nivel de «agravamiento» al nivel
de «amenaza». En las conclusiones se propone elaborar un documento
conceptual en forma de estrategia para la seguridad y estabilidad de las
fronteras estatales, que incluirá formas de resolver los problemas materiales
y técnicos del Servicio Estatal de Guardia de Fronteras de Ucrania.
Palabras clave: estabilidad de las fronteras estatales; crisis migratoria;
seguridad nacional; refugiados; políticas migratorias.
544
Serhii Khalimon, Volodymyr Kyrylenko, Anatoliy Sitsinskyi, Liudmyla Litvin y Viktor Poliuk
State borders stability formation on the conditions of response to migration crises on the example
of Ukraine
Introduction
The borders of any state play a key role in ensuring sovereignty,
inviolability of territorial integrity. Ukraine is not exception; the events of
recent years have proven the importance of Ukraine’s borders in the system
of the national security ensuring. The experience of almost continuous
regional and global crises increases interest to the idea of stability, i.e. the
abilityofstateborderstoadaptandcopewithviolationsanduncontrolled
migrationows(Prokkola,2019).
Illegal migration was, is and will be a widespread phenomenon, the
socialdangerofwhichisdeterminedbyanumberoffactorsofapolitical,
social and economic nature. Today, for the most world countries, this
phenomenon is a special problem, which, unfortunately, has a steady
tendencytogrow.
Over the last few years, the inux of illegal (unlawful) migrants has
doubled, primarily due to the unstable situation in the Middle East, the
terroristorganizationsemergence,thediculteconomicsituation,etc.It
isknownthatthememberstatesoftheEuropeanUnion(hereinafter–the
EU)havebeensueringfromtheproblemsthathavearisenforalongtime,
especially from illegal migration (Kuryliuk, & Khalymon, 2020). Among
the threats to national security, Bratko et al. (2021) determines the spread
ofinternationalcrime,inparticularintheeldofdrugtracking,human
tracking,illegalmigration,proliferationofweaponsofmassdestruction,
etc.
Our study is an attempt to expand the substantive essence of stability,
considering its role and place in the state border protection system, as
wellasthestudyofsituationsinborderareas,withtheaimofstudyingthe
stabilityofthestateborderinrelationtoowsofillegal(irregular)migrants
in particular.
Intheprocessofstudyingtheissueofthestateborderstability,wetried
to investigate the measures taken by the governments of the EU member
states (Poland, Lithuania, Latvia) in order to overcome the migration crisis
of2015–2021,theresponseandactionsoftheUkrainegovernmenttothe
potential risks of the migration crisis on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border
in2021,aswellasto determinewaystoimprovetheorganizationaland
legal mechanisms for conducting special border operations to overcome
migration crises at the state border.
1. Review of the Literature
Thestability of border areas and free border crossing are considered
importantfromthepointofviewofthestatesecurityandthefunctioning
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ofsocietyingeneral(Longo,2018).Therefore,statebordersareextremely
interestingobjectsforstudyingtheirstability.Theuseoftheterm“stability”
isbecomingverypopular,beingincludedinvariousdictionaries,etc.The
meaningofstabilityisdierentanductuatesdependingonacademicand
policy debates (Boschma, 2015).
In the social sciences, stability is understood as the ability of an
individual, community, region or state to adapt to changing circumstances
and recover from a crisis (Adger, 2000).
In general, stability, in our opinion, is the ability of any system
to adequately respond to external inuences and quickly restore its
eectivenessinastablemanner.
TheDecreeofthePresidentofUkraine“OnthedecisionoftheNational
Security and Defence Council of Ukraine” dated August 20, 2021 “On
the implementation of the stability of the national system” approved the
Conceptofensuringthestabilityofthenationalsystem,whichrevealsthe
essence of interests for our research of the terms: national stability and
organizationalstability.Theseterms,inouropinion,directlyrelatetothe
stability of the state border:
Nationalstability–istheabilityofthestateandsocietytoeectivelyresist
threats of any origin and nature, to adapt to changes in the security environment,
to maintain stable functioning, to quickly recover to the desired balance after
crisissituations;organizationalstability–theabilityofstateauthorities,localself-
government bodies, enterprises, institutions, organizations to identify, to prepare,
to respond to threats, to adapt to changes in the security environment, to maintain
stable functioning before, during and after the beginning of a crisis situation in
order to maintain functioning and further development (On the introduction of
the national sustainability system, 2021: 19).
Therefore,thescienticinterestisinclaricationthesystemofforming
the stability of state borders in the conditions of responding to migration
crisesthatoccurredin2015–2021ontheterritoryoftheborderareasofthe
EU.
Considering the fact that a large number of publications are devoted
to the problems of formulating the policy of anti-crisis management
of migration crises in 2015–2021, the problem of methods forming of
prognostication, prevention and response to risks and crisis situations at
various stages of their development, as well as plans for the restoration
ofsustainablefunctioning,takingintoaccountpotentialcascadingeects
remains unsolved.
Thus,Rijavecetal.(2021)investigatedtheanti-crisismeasurescarried
outonthemigrationrouteoftheWesternBalkans,CroatiaandSlovenia.
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Serhii Khalimon, Volodymyr Kyrylenko, Anatoliy Sitsinskyi, Liudmyla Litvin y Viktor Poliuk
State borders stability formation on the conditions of response to migration crises on the example
of Ukraine
McMahon, Sigona, (2020) based on 500 semi-structured interviews
withpeoplewhocrossedtheMediterraneanbyboatbetween2014-2016
and more than 100 interviews with key interested parties in the region,
documentedthe geography of migrantdeathsas well as theirimpacton
policy-making and public response to this migration crisis.
Squire(2020)reectsontheideaofwhethermigrationisasubversive
politicalactthatdisruptsspatialinequalityandlongerhistoriesofpower
andviolence,ora“socialmovement”thatinvolvessubjectiveactsofight.
However,itisworthrememberingthatthemeansbywhichstatestry
toensuretheirownsecuritycanpotentiallyposeathreattoothers.This
istheso-called“securitydilemma”.Thepowerofonestate–anditisnot
necessarilymilitarypower –causesconcerninothers(GonzálvezVallés,
2021). The formation of the stability of the state borders of Ukraine
in response to migration crises is a cause of concern for our neighbours
(the Republic of Belarus (hereinafter referred to as the RB), the Russian
Federation(hereinafterreferredtoastheRF)).However,itisobviousthat
their concern is false and Ukraine cannot pose any threats to neighbouring
countries.
Todayitisobviousthattheinstigationofthemigrationcrisis“Belarusian
route”of2021wasorganizedbythespecialservicesoftheRFinorderto
diverttheattentionoftheEUandothercountriesoftheworldfromthe
preparation of the RF for armed aggression against independent, sovereign
Ukraine,whichtookplaceonFebruary24,2022.
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has launched a process of destroying
thesystemofEuropeanandtransatlanticsecurity.TheKremlin’sactions
against Ukraine and other regional states are undermining stability in the
area from the Baltic to the Black Sea, creating a serious challenge to peace
and security in the region (Bratko, Zaharchuk, Zolka, 2021: 147).
2. Method
Themethodologyofourresearchisbasedongeneralscienticmethods,
the main of which is the system analysis method. In addition, during
the research, empirical data processing methods (analysis, synthesis,
comparisonand generalization) were used to compare and interpret the
dataobtainedfrom the results of other studies, as well as mathematical
prognostication methods for the development of methods for identifying
threats at the border.
With the help of these methods, textbooks, books, scientic articles,
dissertations,empiricalmaterialspublishedonocialwebsites,aswellas
documentsintheeldofmigrationpolicywerestudied.
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Theconclusionsofthescienticstudyarealsobasedontheempirical
materialobtainedbytheauthor’steamduringthescienticexpeditionto
the areas of the special border operation “Polissia” in November-December
2021 (order of the Administration of the State Border Guard Service of
UkrainedatedNovember25,2021№R-564/0/10-21).
3. Results
3.1. Study of foreign experience in responding to migration
crises in 2015-2021
Studying the foreign experience of responding to migration crises
(“Balkan route”) shows that several conceptual approaches to their
denition have been developed in the scientic discourse, in particular,
“state of emergency” and “humanitarian corridor”.
Therstapproachdenedthemigrationcrisisatthe“Balkanroute”as
anunorganizedformofemergencywithoutspokencriticismoftherefusal
ofthefreemovementofrefugeesacrossborders.Thesecondapproachis
theconceptofthe“humanitariancorridor”asapolicyofexclusivity,which
ensured the fastest and safest movement of illegal (irregular) migrants
throughtransitcountrieswithouttheservicesofintermediaries(migrant
smugglers) and was most in line with the interests of refugees (Žagar,
Šalamon et al., 2018).
AsnotedbyKurnik,Toplak(2021:337):“…afterthe“ArabSpring”and
the“SummerofMigration”wewitnessedthefallofEurope.Weareabout
toseewhetherthis“fall”isthenalcollapseoftheunrealisticideasofan
open,tolerantandhumaneEurope,orwhetherthe“fall”maystillmean
a period of maturity.”
FRONTEX (2019) statistics for the three-year period of the 2015-
2016 migration crisis indicate that almost 2,5 million illegal (irregular)
migrants entered EU countries via routes along the Mediterranean Sea
andcontinuedtransitthroughtheWesternBalkansroutetoreachplace
of destination.
In turn, the migration crisis of 2021 “Belarusian route” has a much
smaller scale (according to various data, there were 5,000 to 20,000
illegal migrants), but the causes of its occurrence, as well as possible
furtherconsequences,aresignicantlydierentfromthemigrationcrisis
crises of the “Balkan route”.
Themigrationcrisisof2021“Belarusianroute”canalsobecharacterized
as a “state of emergency”, because the government of the Republic of
Poland did not agree to the proposal of the organizers of the migration
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Serhii Khalimon, Volodymyr Kyrylenko, Anatoliy Sitsinskyi, Liudmyla Litvin y Viktor Poliuk
State borders stability formation on the conditions of response to migration crises on the example
of Ukraine
crisis, namely, the RB to open a humanitarian corridor and give migrants
the opportunity to enter the EU member states. As we can see, the
governmentoftheRepublicofPolanddidnotwanttorepeatthemistakes
of2015.GermanChancellorAngelaMerkelwasevenaccusedofmakinga
gravemistakethatdestabilizedsocietyinEuropewhenGermanyopened
itsborderstorefugeesseekingasylum,eventhoughHungarywasbuilding
awallalongitsborderatthetimetostoppeopletryingtogettoGermany
(Kurnik,Toplak,2021:325-326).
Thepracticalexperienceofrespondingtothemigrationcrisisof2021,
the “Belarusian route”, shows that the countries located on the external
bordersoftheEUperceivetheowsofillegalmigrantsinadierentway,as
wellasthereasonsthatbecamethebasisfortheemergenceofthemigration
crisis.Thus,themigrationcrisisof2021wasorganizedontheterritoryof
theRB,nearthebordersoftheEU:Poland,LithuaniaandLatvia.These
states,whichrelativelyrecentlybecamemembersoftheEUandNATO,are
the most radical opponents of the RF, and they really feel the threat that
comes from it.
Inaddition,accordingtoFRONTEX,theaveragerateofillegalcrossing
of the eastern borders of the EU before the start of the migration crisis in
2021didnotexceed280peoplepermonth(FRONTEX,2018).Theanalysis
ofstatisticalindicatorsoftheMinistryofInternalAairsofLithuaniafor
2020showedthatonly74illegalmigrantscrossedthebordersofLithuania
and Belarus, and later their number began to grow rapidly and reached
2,400peopleinJuly(Fig.1).Maintainingsuchdynamicswouldleadtothe
fact that 15 thousand of illegal migrants could arrive in Lithuania alone,
thereforethegovernmentsofthesecountrieswereforcedtotakeadequate
measurestostoptheowofillegal(irregular)migrantsfromBelarus–from
the construction of engineering and technical facilities to the introduction
of a state of emergency in separate territories.
In addition, on June 28, 2021, the government of the RB ocially
announced the beginning of the termination of the agreement on
readmission with the EU. In practice, this meant that the Belarusian
authorities refused their obligations regarding the return of citizens of
thirdcountrieswhoillegallycrossedtheborderandwhoweredetainedon
theterritoryoftheEU(LawoftheRBNo.125-Z.).InNovember2021,the
situationwith migrantsin theRB signicantlyworsened.Thisespecially
applied to several border crossing points on the Belarusian-Polish border,
namely,nearthebordercrossingpoint“KUZNITSA”-“BIALOSTOK”there
were almost 5 thousand migrants who made several attempts to break
throughtoPolandbyforceandcreatedaeldcampontheneutralborder
strip,whichcontributedtotheemergenceofahumanitariancrisis.
Thenumberofthird-countrynationalswhotriedtoillegallycrossthe
state border of Poland with the RB outside the border crossing points
amountedto39,697,whichisthreehundredtimesmorethanin2020.
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Fig. 1. The number of migrants according to ocial data of the Ministry of
Internal Aairs of Lithuania.
In 2020, during the same period, only 129 people tried to cross the state
borderwiththeRBoutsidethestatebordercrossingpoints.Inturn,the
intensicationofillegalmigrationin2021occursinAugust,anditspeak
occurred in October, when the number of attempts to illegally cross the
stateborderamountedto17,447people.Thenumberofcasesofthestate
bordercrossingofPolandwiththeRBinviolationoftheestablishedrules
decreasedsignicantlyandamountedto8,917inNovemberand1,740in
December (Fig. 2, 3).
The greatest migratory pressure occurred at the Mikhalova border
post, where 5,466 people tried to illegally cross the border at the area.
Inaddition,a large number of attempts to violate thestateborderwere
stoppedattheborderpostinMelnyk–4,890foreignersandattheborder
pointinBilovezha–4,855foreigners.
Intotal,thereweremorethan10,000peopleintheRBwhoarrivedfrom
thecountriesoftheMiddleEastandtriedtocrosstoWesternEurope.They
expectedthattherewouldbeanopportunitytogetintotheEU,andthey
are ready under any conditions and very quickly to support the protests at
the border.
TheBelarusianauthoritiestriedtoferryillegal(irregular)migrantsfrom
theMiddleEasttotheborderassoonaspossible.Themassmediarecorded
the transfer of illegal (irregular) migrants, migrants from Minsk to the
borderswiththeEU,withtheaimofexacerbatingthemigrationcrisisand
increasingpressure onneighbouring countries.Apparently,the ideawas
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Serhii Khalimon, Volodymyr Kyrylenko, Anatoliy Sitsinskyi, Liudmyla Litvin y Viktor Poliuk
State borders stability formation on the conditions of response to migration crises on the example
of Ukraine
thatwiththebeginningofcoldweather,thePolishauthorities,underthe
pressure of the international community and accusations of inhumane
treatmentofpeoplewouldmakeconcessionsandopentheborders.
Therefugeepublicsector,namelySeebrückeDeutschlandandLeaveNo
OneBehind,havecalledforahumanitariancorridorforrefugeessuering
attheBelarusianborders.Adherencetotheruleoflaw,providingassistance
torefugeesseekingabetterlifeinwealthyEuropeisimportant,butnational
security is also important, because next to the refugees may be Islamic State
ofIraqandtheLevantterrorists,Russianintelligenceagents,whosegoalis
tounderminethesecurityofcountries–EUmembers.
Fig. 2. Distribution of illegal (irregular) migrants’ detentions on the Polish-
Belarusian border during 2018-2021 (According to the results of the activities of
the Border Service of Poland).
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Fig. 3. Distribution of the number of illegal (irregular) migrants by month in
2021 at the border of Poland.
CertainpoliticalauthoritiesintheWestperceivedUkraineasatransit
countrywhereillegalimmigrantscouldwaitforthedecisionofEuropean
statestoadmitthem.Inparticular,migrantsfromtheRBcouldwaitfor
consideration of their application for asylum in the EU in Ukraine. Nils
Schmidt, an expert on foreign policy issues of the Social Democratic Party
faction in the German Bundestag, proposed such a solution to the problem
of refugees on the Belarusian-Polish border (Schmid, 2021).
4. The experience of Ukraine’s response to the potential risks of
the migration crisis on the Ukrainian Belarus border
Onthebackgroundoftheghtagainstthepandemicin2021,theEuropean
communitywasforcedtorespondtoasignicantowofillegalmigrants,
provoked by the self-proclaimed Belarusian authorities. In response to EU
sanctions against the RB, the Belarusian authorities organized channels
for transporting illegal (irregular) migrants from the country across the
EUborder,rsttoLithuania,andthentoPoland.Transportationofpeople
acrosstheborderwascarriedoutwiththeactiveassistanceofBelarusian
borderguards.Ukrainewasalsonotleftoutofsuchamigrationcrisis.
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Serhii Khalimon, Volodymyr Kyrylenko, Anatoliy Sitsinskyi, Liudmyla Litvin y Viktor Poliuk
State borders stability formation on the conditions of response to migration crises on the example
of Ukraine
In December 2021, according to various data, from 5,000 to 20,000
illegal (irregular) migrants from the Middle East and Africa were
concentratedontheterritoryoftheRB.TakingintoaccountthatUkraine
hasacommonborderwiththeRB,therewasahighprobabilityofattempts
to transport them to the borders of the EU by transit through Ukraine.
Studying the course of events of the migration crisis on the Belarusian
bordershowsthatitisoneofthetoolsofthehybridwaroftheRFagainst
theWest,becausetheBelarusianspecialservicesdonothaveenoughmeans
and funds to organize the process of moving several thousand people from
theMiddleEasttoEurope.Andthisshowsthatwithoutthecoordination
and help of the RF, it would be quite dicult to organize such events,
besides, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the RF specializes in such
operations.Itisworthmentioningatleasttheorganization ofamassive
migrationcrisisonthesouthernankoftheEUaftertheRussianinvasion
of Syria in 2015.
At the same time, the agreement on readmission between Ukraine
and the RB came in force from 2020. This means that illegal migrants
who illegally entered the territory of a state from another country must
beexpelled back andthestate from whichthemigrants came isobliged
to accept them. At present, there are legal grounds for preventing such a
situation as on the Polish-Belarusian border on the Ukrainian-Belarusian
section of the state border. At the same time, as the experience of operational
andserviceactivitiesoftheborderagencyshows,itisnotworthdepending
ontheeectivenessofthereadmissionagreement,becausetheBelarusian
side refuses to accept illegal (irregular) migrants and has not accepted a
singlemigrantsincetheeectivedateofthisagreement.
In order to increase the capacity for operative response to attempts of
mass violations of the state border of Ukraine by migrants and to ensure
national security in the border areas of Ukraine and directly on the border
ofUkrainewiththeRB,theStateBorderGuardServiceofUkrainetogether
withtheforcesof the National Guard of Ukraine,theNationalPolice of
Ukraine, the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the State emergency service of
Ukraine conducted a special border operation “Polissia” from November
23, 2021.
In November 2021, the analysis of the situation made it possible to
predict several options for the development of the migration crisis and its
course.
• The rst of them is that everything remains unchanged and
contributes to the growth of confrontation, provocations and the
creation of an unfavourable humanitarian and epidemiological
situation.
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• Thesecondscenarioisthatillegal(irregular)migrantswillstillbe
allowedtoenterGermanyandfurthertheEU.
• The third version of the development of events involves the
deportation of illegal (irregular) migrants to the countries from
whichtheycame.
• The fourth option involves the redirection of migration ows to
other directions, including to Ukraine.
In order to counteract the migration crisis, in the process of a joint border
operation, the possible directions of a border breakthrough by migrants
wereoutlined,thescenariosoftheiractionswereworkedout,andtheuse
ofavailableforcesandmeanswasplanned.Inaddition,themeetingofthe
Security and Defence Council of Ukraine clearly dened the forces and
meansthatarenecessaryforanadequateresponsetotheworstcourseof
events,namely:uptotenpotentiallyvulnerablesectionsoftheborderwith
alengthofabout270kilometreswereidentiedandanoperationalsurvey
oftheborderterritorywascarriedoutregardingtheobjectivesituationand
risks.
Aviationwasinvolvedintheshifts–upto15helicopters,twoplanesand
44 drones. As evidenced by previous studies of the use of unmanned aerial
vehicles,theyshowhigheciencyresultsduringmonitoringofthestate
border of Ukraine (Khalymon et al.,2021).Statrainingswereconducted,
wherevariousscenariosofthedevelopmentofthesituationwereworked
out,eldexercisestogetherwiththeoperationparticipantswereconducted
to work out possible scenarios for countering the mass inux of illegal
migrants directly at the border.
Echeloncovertacticswereusedtoprotecttheborder.Therstechelon
was unarmed, they had only protective equipment, and in the case of
aggressiveactionsbyborderviolators,thesecondechelonpersonnelwere
armedwiththenecessaryspecialequipmentandweaponsaccordingtolaw.
Basepointsfortheformationofareserve,which,ifnecessary,willbe
able to reach critical points of the state border in 30-60 minutes, and the
placement of camps for additional forces and means have been determined.
Representatives of local authorities of border regions and oblasts were
involved in decision-making.
Also,withtheaimofreadinessformingoftheoperationparticipants,
togetherwiththeintelligenceandSecurityServiceofUkraine,theMinistry
ofInternalAairsofUkraine,asetofpreventivemeasureswasdeveloped
topreventprovocations,inparticular,regardingthetimelyidenticationof
instigators, leaders and other suspicious persons.
Training was conducted together with the Armed Forces of Ukraine,
territorialdefenceservices,andpubliclawenforcementformations.Inorder
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Serhii Khalimon, Volodymyr Kyrylenko, Anatoliy Sitsinskyi, Liudmyla Litvin y Viktor Poliuk
State borders stability formation on the conditions of response to migration crises on the example
of Ukraine
to inform illegal (irregular) migrants about the inadmissibility of the state
borderofUkrainecrossingandillegalbehaviour,mobilesoundamplier
deviceswereusedandwarningtextmessagesinArabicandEnglishwere
sent through Ukrainian cellular operators.
Thebestdefenceagainstthiscrisis,asexperiencehasshown,wasthe
properengineeringequipmentofthestateborder.Tosolvetheproblemof
illegalmigration,anumberofmeasuresshouldbetaken,namely:nancing
ofsearchandrescuemissions,providingfundsandmeanstoghtagainst
migrant carriers, expanding the capabilities of temporary detention centres
andprovidingassistance,improvingthemechanismsofinteractionbetween
the integrated border management subjects.
5. Ways to improve the organizational and legal aspects of
special border operations conducting to overcome migration
crises at the state border of Ukraine
Taking into account the situation that has developed since October
2021 at the Polish-Belarusian, Lithuanian-Belarusian, and Latvian-
Belarusian state borders on the mass incursion attempts of large groups
of illegal (irregular) migrants from Belarus and the implementation of
eective countermeasures to prevent their incursion into Ukraine, it is
logical to assume the possibility of redirecting migration ows from the
Polish,LithuanianandLatvianareasoftheRBtotheborderwithUkraine.
According to experts’ estimates, the number of illegal migrants who
concentrated on the territory of the RB amounted to almost 25,000 people,
whichindicatedthegrowthofpotentialmigratorythreatstothenational
security of Ukraine.
The expert survey was conducted in order to determine the threats
levels depending on the number of illegal (irregular) migrants in the area of
responsibility,basedontheresultsofwhichitwaspossibletodistinguish
three categories of illegal migration levels: “A”, “B”, “C” (Fig. 4).
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category «B»
CRISIS
MIGRATION
category «С»
THREAT TO THE
NATIONAL SECURITY
OF UKRAINE
SITUATION
THE DEGREE
OF MIGRATION
CRISIS
The quantity of migrants
is within 300 people
The quantity of migrants
is within 1000 people
The quantity of migrants
is more than 1000 people
TO LOCALIZ AND ATION
OVERCOME AGGRAVATION
FORCES AND MEANS
BORDER AND ADDEDUNIT UNITS
the reserve of the Head of the State
Border Service and cooperating Guard
bodies of the security and defense sector
the reserve of the Head of the State
Border Service, etcGuard
BORDER AND ADDEDUNIT UNITS
BORDER UNIT
category «A»
FULLY
CONTROLLED
Fig. 4. Categorization of aggravation levels of the situation depending on the
increase of illegal migration. Source: prepared by the authors.
“A”categoryofillegalmigration–isthelevelofthesituation,whichis
aggravated due to the illegal migration increase in the area of responsibility
oftheborderguarddetachment,thelocalizationandovercomingofwhich
can be carried out by the available forces and means of the border unit
(≈ 300 illegal migrants), and such a situation can be considered as such,
whichisfullycontrolled.
“B”categoryofillegalmigration–isthelevelofthesituation,whichis
aggravated due to the illegal migration increase in the area of responsibility
oftheborderguarddetachment,thelocalizationofwhichcanbecarriedout
withtheavailableandattached(theHeadoftheStateBorderGuardService
of Ukraine reserve, etc.) forces and means of the border unit (up to 1,000
illegal migrants) and such a situation can be considered as obtaining signs
of a migration crisis.
“C”categoryofillegalmigration–isthelevelofthesituation,whichis
aggravated due to the illegal migration increase in the area of responsibility
oftheborderguarddetachment,thelocalizationofwhichcanbecarried
out by the united detachments of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine
andwiththeinvolvementofforcesandmeansofinteractingbodiesofthe
security and defence sector (more than 1,000 illegal migrants) and such a
situation can be considered as obtaining signs of a migration threat to the
national security of Ukraine.
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Serhii Khalimon, Volodymyr Kyrylenko, Anatoliy Sitsinskyi, Liudmyla Litvin y Viktor Poliuk
State borders stability formation on the conditions of response to migration crises on the example
of Ukraine
Suchadistributionoflevelsallowsformingmorebalancedandeective
borderprotection,whichwillbeadequatetosuchathreattothenational
security of Ukraine as illegal migration.
Permanentillegalactivity,whichischaracterizedbydierentlevelsof
intensity at the state border, requires the headquarters of all management
levels of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine to make timely decisions
adequate to the situation regarding the organization of state border
protection.ThemethodpresentedinthemonographbyGorodnovet al.,
(2009)isquitewell-knownandtested.
In order to perform such a task, it is necessary to have reference of
multidimensional objects of typical situations that may arise in the areas of
responsibility of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine units, the use of
a measurable indicator of the situation aggravation degree and the relevant
methodology of calculations implementation (Gorodnov et al.,2009)allows
detecting indicator changes, to prognosticate the nature of its changes and
toidentifythetimeperiodduringwhichthetransitionispossiblefromthe
“aggravation” state to the “threat” state at the border sphere of the national
security of Ukraine
Combinations variants of the situation aggravation signs are
multidimensional units, which allows using the approach known in
taxonomytotheassessmentofmultidimensionalobjects,havingrenedthe
ideaofmeasuringthetaxonomicdistancetakingintoaccountthespecics
of the tasks of assessing the situation aggravation degree and its transition
tothe“threat”state.Themethodologyincludesthefollowingmainstages:
• the values matrix of normalized features is calculated for each unit
of a multidimensional object;
• the following is calculated: the vector – by the distance between
the current multidimensional units-points and the reference
multidimensional point – by the vector of the transition of the
situation aggravation process into a clear threat;
• the indicator of the situation aggravation degree is calculated.
Thenalformulafortheindicatorofthesituationaggravationdegree
(Lsi)wasdevelopedinthemonographofGorodnovet al., (2009):
0
0
1
c
c
L
i
si
−=
.(1)
Theindicatorisinterpretedasfollows:thegreaterthevalue(Lsi)ofthe
situation aggravation degree indicator, the closer the current i-th situation
aggravation state is to the reference situation of “threat”.
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Thepracticalapplicationofthismathematicalapparatuswastestedon
theexampleofmaterialsabouteventsaroundtheislandofKosaTuzlathat
took place in the autumn of 2003 (Kyrylenko et al., 2008);
The multidimensional situation related to the fact of increasing the
tempoofworkontheconstructionofthehydrotechnicalfacilityoftheRF
towardstheislandintheperiodfrom29thofAugust2002to21stofOctober
2003wastakenasamultidimensionalreferencepointfortheformationof
the threat.
Thedependenceofthevaluesoftheindicatorofthesituationaggravation
degree the during the formation of a threat to territorial integrity by time
stagesispresentedong.5.Alongtheabscissaaxisintheintervalfromt1
to the unit of time is a day.
Theobtaineddependenceofthevaluesoftheindicatorofthesituation
aggravationdegreeallowsdetermininganexplicitexpressionforthetrend
line(Lst−solidline):
L
st
= 0,4707 - 0,0078t + 0,0002t
2
(2)
Tangentto the trend line allows estimating the rate of change in the
value of the indicator of the exacerbation degree (Fig. 5, point B)
.(3)
In addition, the presence of a quadratic component (2) demonstrates the
existenceofanon-zeropositiveaccelerationoftheindicatorvaluesgrowth,
whichcanbeasignaltoacceleratetheimplementationofcountermeasures
against the threat, and the fact of overcoming the indicator at the level of
0,65 (Lst ≥ 0,65) with the simultaneous appearance of a positive of the
second derivative of the indicator (2) and the corresponding angle increase
φз(upto90º)isasignicantsignofthethreatoccurrenceatthetimet,
whichcanbeapproximatelyestimatedfromtheexpression(2),equating
the value of Ls to one.
In the presence of an oscillatory process of changes in the indicator
Ls(t)(dashedline)ofthesituationexacerbationdegree(sectiont3–t4in
Fig. 5), conclusions about the dynamics of exacerbation and the possibility
of the transition of the situation from the “aggravation” state to the “threat”
state can be made using the line trend of Ls indicator values.
558
Serhii Khalimon, Volodymyr Kyrylenko, Anatoliy Sitsinskyi, Liudmyla Litvin y Viktor Poliuk
State borders stability formation on the conditions of response to migration crises on the example
of Ukraine
Fig. 5. Dependence of the indicator of the situation aggravation degree in the
threat formation to the state territorial integrity on the time stages of the
situation aggravation. Source: prepared by the authors.
A graphical presentation of the change’s dynamics in the indicator
valuesofthesituationescalationdegreeallowsassumingthattheparties
formingthesituationescalationwerenotyetreadyfordecisiveactionby
the moment of time t3 (Fig. 5, point A). Having determined the beginning
of the escalation, the “attack” party and the “victim” party for some time
(Fig. 5, until the moment t4) took actions aimed at reducing the level of
tensioninthesituation.However,afterthemomentt4,the“attack”party,
having prepared forces, means and conditions, began to develop its actions
withasteadytendencytoachieveitsgoal,whichobviouslybegantomove
(Fig. 5, point C) into the zone of the “threat” state.
TheapproximatingLastlineofchanges inthevaluesoftheindicator
of the situation aggravation allows roughly estimating (predicting) the
possibility and moment of the threat formation or a reduction of tensions
in this sphere of national security of Ukraine.
Thepracticalrelevanceoftheobtainedresearchresultsisshowninthe
followingactionsregardingpreparationfortheelimination(prevention)of
possible options for threats to the national security of Ukraine in the border
area and the developed options for actions of border units and interaction
forces.
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Therefore, the developed indicator and methodology provide an
opportunity to detect integral changes in the situation in the border area
of national security of the state, to determine time periods of increase
(decrease) in the degree of exacerbation in the main areas of national
security of Ukraine, to prognosticate the time period for the transition of
the situation from the “aggravation” level to the “threat” level (transitions
from category A to category B or C and vice versa), to evaluate the rate of
change in the values of the indicator of the situation aggravation degree
in order to further prognosticate the real and potential consequences for
border protection and the use of timely measures to counter the threat, i.e.
toensuretheabilityofstateborderstoadaptandtodealwithoenseson
the state border of Ukraine of various categories.
National stability is possible due to the creation of a system for national
stabilityensuring,whichinturnisasetofinteractingsubjects,purposeful
actions, methods, factors and mechanisms that guarantee the preservation
of security and continuity of the national systems functioning before,
during and after a crisis through adaptation to threats and rapid changes in
the security environment.
As noted by (Reznikova & Voitovskyi, 2020), taking into account the
complex security environment of Ukraine and the peculiarities of the state
and society development, when dening a model for national stability
ensuring, Ukraine should not be limited to strengthening civil preparedness
andcrisismanagement,includingtheeldofcriticalinfrastructuresecurity.
Webelievethatthisapproachallowsclassifyingstatebordersasobjectsof
critical national infrastructure.
Howcouldweachievethesituationthatanyelementofthestateborder,
from a separate checkpoint to large airports, to ensure the protection of the
state, its inviolability and territorial integrity?
Theanswertosuchaquestioncanbeprovidedbyaconceptualdocument
in the form of a strategy for the security and stability of state borders.
Studying the experience of the border’s stability ensuring of the of
foreigncountriesshowstheneedtotakeintoaccountanumberofaspects
1. Thestate border must be supposed as a complete, interconnected
network.
The state borders optimal stability and eciency is achieved due to
thefactthatitisnecessarytoprotectbordersasasinglenetworkformed
from various interconnected parts – airports, seaports, railway stations,
automobilebordercrossingpoints,etc.Thisnotonlyimprovessecurity,but
italsoenablesustoworktogethertomaintainauniedstabilitytocrisis
situations.
2.Thestatebordermustbeclassiedasacriticalnationalinfrastructure
(CNI).
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Serhii Khalimon, Volodymyr Kyrylenko, Anatoliy Sitsinskyi, Liudmyla Litvin y Viktor Poliuk
State borders stability formation on the conditions of response to migration crises on the example
of Ukraine
Designating a national border as a critical national infrastructure
providesanopportunitytoprotectitinawaythatprotectsus.Constant
underfundingofthecentral body of executive power, which implements
statepolicyinthe eld of the state border protecting anddefendingthe
sovereign rights of Ukraine in its exclusive (maritime) economic zone, leads
tothefactthatthetasksassignedtothisbodyareperformedineciently.
3. Creation of a single body responsible for the protection and security
of state borders.
The current state of security (combating criminal oences, customs
oences,etc.)ofstatebordersrepresentsanextensivenetworkofentities
providing security (the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, the State
Customs Service of Ukraine, and the Security Service of Ukraine). The
customs border of Ukraine coincides with the state border of Ukraine,
except for the borders of articial islands, installations and structures
createdintheexclusive(maritime)economiczoneofUkraine,whichare
subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Ukraine.
Violation of customs rules represents a global threat to the national
securityofUkraineinallitscomponents,asitwasrepeatedlyemphasized
by (Filippov, 2016; 2019) in his publications. Dierentiation of powers
between various state bodies, both in terms of countering violations of
customs rules and combating smuggling, indicates the ineectiveness
ofsuch a mechanism for responding to threats. The creation of a single
bodythatwillberesponsibleforthesecurityofboththestateandcustoms
borderswillmakeitpossibletoincreasetheeectivenessofitsprotection.
4. Determination of the most vulnerable places of the state border.
Acomprehensivevulnerabilityanalysiswillhelptoassessthreatlevels
and develop action algorithms in crisis situations. This allows properly
planning the protection of vulnerable places and reducing the risks to the
nationalstabilitysystem.Thecreationofathreatassessmentsystemwill
provide an opportunity to prognosticate and model crisis situations.
5. Formation of the necessary reserves of forces and means that
ensurethecapabilitiesofthecentralbodyofexecutivepower,which
implementsthestatepolicyintheeldofthestateborderprotecting
and security of the sovereign rights of Ukraine in its exclusive
(maritime) economic zone.
Thebordersofthestatemustmeetcertaincriteria(signs)ofstability:
the ability to function without interruption, to adapt to negative
inuencesandchangingconditions;
theabilitytowithstandunexpectedshocks;
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the ability to quickly recover from the destructive consequences of
phenomena/actions of any nature to the desired balance (Reznikova,
2017).
Wefullyagreewith(Rijavec,ŠtambukandPevcin,2021)thatcomplex
problemsaregenerallydiculttoclearlydene,theyaresociallycomplex,
and cannot be solved unequivocally. They have many interrelated
instabilities and are often caused by a number of causes (multicausal).
Migration crises are precisely such complex problems that do not
have a clear solution, but require a complex of political, socio-economic,
humanitarian and other measures.
Despite the fact that, in general, the State Border Guard Service of
Ukraine is ready to respond to migration crises of this nature, it experiences
certain problems of a material and technical nature. In the situation that
illegal (irregular) migrants are actually directed to the borders of Ukraine,
theStateBorderGuardServiceofUkrainewillexperienceproblemsofa
humanitarian nature, related to the need for humane treatment of illegal
migrants, respect for their rights and freedoms.
Thisrequiresthegovernmenttodevelopanappropriateresponseplan
totheirregulargrowthofmigrationatthestateborderatthelevelofthreats
similar to those occurring at the Polish-Belarusian border.
First of all, in order to determine the level of an unregulated migration
crisis,itisnecessarytodevelopindicatorsthatwillmakeitpossibletoset
threshold values for the implementation of a response plan and the use of
additional funding.
It is necessary to create a fund for responding to migration crises (reserve
fund of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine) in order to solve the
problemsofmaterialandtechnicalsupport.Theamountofexpensesforthe
fundformationwillbemadeinaccordancewiththeneedsdeterminedby
the integrated border management subjects.
Fundexpensescanbedirectedtothefollowingpurposes:
expansionofopportunitiesforsolvingproceduralissueswithillegal
migrants;
replenishment of material and technical resources (transport,
food products, medicines, fuel and lubricants, means for heating
positions, special means, engineering and technical equipment, etc.)
and overtime funds for the personnel of the forces involved in the
elimination of the migration crisis;
improving the conditions of detention of illegal migrants, providing
care for children taking into account the state of health;
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State borders stability formation on the conditions of response to migration crises on the example
of Ukraine
coordination and provision of resources to non-governmental
organizations that contribute to the state border protection of;
improvement of interdepartmental coordination (Khalimon &
Kyrylenko, 2022: 169).
Conclusion
The conducted research provided an opportunity to nd out how
the governments of the EU member states (Poland, Lithuania, Latvia)
responded to the migration crisis of 2021. It has been revealed that several
conceptualapproachestodeningresponsemeasurestomigrationcrises
havebeendevelopedinthescienticdiscourse.Therstapproachhasthe
conventionalname“stateofemergency”,andthesecond–“humanitarian
corridor”. The migration crisis of 2021 “Belarusian route” can also be
characterized as a “state of emergency”, because the government of the RP
did not agree to the proposal of the organizers of the migration crisis (RB) to
openahumanitariancorridorandallowmigrantstogettoWesternEurope.
It is obvious that the measures taken by the governments of EU member
stateshavebroughtpositiveresults.Theorganizersofthemigrationcrisis
of 2021 were forced to stop the ow of illegal (irregular) migrants and
graduallysendthemtotheircountriesoforigin.Thus,thenationalsecurity
of EU member states had a higher priority than providing assistance to
refugeesseekingabetterlifeinwealthyEurope.
Thestudyoftheexperienceofrespondingtoapotentialmigrationcrisis
bythegovernmentofUkraineontheUkrainian-Belarusianbordertestied
thatthestateauthoritieswhosecompetenceincludesrespondingtosuch
crisisphenomenawerenotfullypreparedtosolvethem.Firstofall,this
wasdetectedinthelogisticalsupportofaspecialborderoperation,which
required the use of certain reserve funds.
Prognosticating the redirection of migration ows in the direction
of Ukraine, the government took measures to determine the possible
directionsofmigrantsbreakingthroughtheborder,workedoutthemost
credible scenarios of their actions, planned the use of forces and means. Up
totenpotentiallyvulnerableareaswithalengthofabout270kilometres
wereidentiedandtheoperationalsurveyoftheborderareawascarried
outregardingtheobjectivesituationandrisks.Theoperationalreservesof
theNationalGuardandtheNationalPolicewereinvolved.Echeloncover
tacticswereusedtoprotecttheborder.
The authors’ direct participation in conducting a special border
operation, studying the experience of responding to migration crises in
foreigncountriesmadeitpossibletoproposecertainwaysofimprovingthe
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organizational and legal aspects of conducting special border operations to
overcome migration crises at the state border.
Itwasproposedtodeterminethethreatslevelstothestabilityofthestate
border of Ukraine depending on the number of probable illegal (irregular)
migrants in the area of responsibility. If the situation is characterized by an
increase of illegal migration in the area of responsibility of the border guard
detachment,thelocalizationofwhichcanbecarriedoutbytheavailable
forces of the border unit (≈ 300 people of illegal (illegal) migrants in total
duringtheperiod)–itis“A”categorythreat.
If the situation characterized by an increase of illegal migration in the
area of responsibility of the border guard detachment, the localization of
whichcanbecarriedoutbytheavailableandattachedforces(reserveofthe
Head of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, etc.) of the border unit
(almost1,000illegal(irregular)migrantsintotalduringtheperiod)–itis
“B” category threat).
If the situation is characterized by an increase of illegal migration in the
area of responsibility of the border guard detachment, the localization of
whichcanbecarriedoutbythecombineddetachmentsoftheStateBorder
GuardServiceofUkraineandwiththeinvolvementoftheforcesandmeans
ofinteractingbodiesofthesecurityanddefencesector(signicantlymore
than1,000illegal(irregular) migrants in total during the period) – it is
a threat to the national security of Ukraine (illegal migration of the “C”
category).
Themethodologyhasbeendevelopedthatmakesitpossibletodetect
integral changes of the situation in the border area of the state national
security, to determine time periods of increase (decrease) of the exacerbation
degree, to prognosticate the period of time for the transition of the situation
from the “aggravation” level to the “threat” level.
Itisproposedtoworkoutaconceptualdocumentintheformofastrategy
forthesecurityandstabilityofstateborders,whichwillincludewaysto
solve material and technical problems of the State Border Guard Service
ofUkraine.Oneofthewayscanbethecreationofafundforresponding
to migration crises (reserve fund of the State Border Guard Service of
Ukraine).Theamountofexpensesforthefundformationwillbemadein
accordancewiththeneedsdeterminedbythesubjectsofintegratedborder
management.
Acknowledgments
Theauthorsthanktheresearchteam,aswellasthosewhosharedwith
ustheirknowledgeabouttheghtagainstmigrationcrises.Wealsothank
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Serhii Khalimon, Volodymyr Kyrylenko, Anatoliy Sitsinskyi, Liudmyla Litvin y Viktor Poliuk
State borders stability formation on the conditions of response to migration crises on the example
of Ukraine
theanonymousreviewers of this article and the editorsfortheirpatient
support.
Conict of Interest
Theauthorsofthisarticledeclarenoconictofinterest.
Thisresearchreceivednospecicgrantfromanyfundingagencyinthe
public,commercial,ornot-for-protsectors.
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