Instituto de Estudios Políticos y Derecho Público "Dr. Humberto J. La Roche"
de la Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Políticas de la Universidad del Zulia
Maracaibo, Venezuela
Publicación cientíca en formato digital
ISSN-Versión Impresa 0798-1406 / ISSN-Versión on line 2542-3185
Depósito legal pp 197402ZU34
ppi 201502ZU4645
Vol.40 N° 75
2022
Recibido el 28/08/22 Aceptado el 14/11/22
ISSN 0798-1406 ~ Depósito legal pp 198502ZU132
Cues tio nes Po lí ti cas
La re vis ta Cues tio nes Po lí ti cas, es una pu bli ca cn aus pi cia da por el Ins ti tu to
de Es tu dios Po lí ti cos y De re cho Pú bli co Dr. Hum ber to J. La Ro che” (IEPDP) de la Fa-
cul tad de Cien cias Ju rí di cas y Po ti cas de la Uni ver si dad del Zu lia.
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avan ces o re sul ta dos de in ves ti ga ción en las áreas de Cien cia Po lí ti ca y De re cho Pú bli-
co, los cua les son so me ti dos a la con si de ra ción de ár bi tros ca li fi ca dos.
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Vol. 40, Nº 75 (2022), 581-602
IEPDP-Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Políticas - LUZ
Ukraine’s security and Pakistan’s
security: mechanisms to overcome threats
DOI: https://doi.org/10.46398/cuestpol.4075.35
Iryna Tykhonenko *
Oleksandr Trygub **
Tetiana Bohdanova ***
Oleksandr Shevchuk ****
Abstract
The sphere of security plays an important role in the domestic
and foreign policy of states. In this regard, the object of the study
were security threats that determine stability in Ukraine and
Pakistan. The authors used the method of comparative analysis
to draw parallels between the security of Ukraine and Pakistan
and identify possible ways to improve it. It is concluded that,
both Ukraine and Pakistan are quite geopolitically distant, have
dierent histories and state-building processes, but are aected
by traditional and “non-traditional” security threats. Denitely,
the main unifying factor for the states is the antagonistic or “enemy” state
- India for Pakistan and Russia for Ukraine, which becomes a catalyst for
the formation of national identity and unity of society. The conicts in
Pakistan (Kashmir, Baluchistan and Pashtunistan) and Ukraine (war in
Donbass, illegal annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation) have had
common consequences and mechanisms for overcoming them, which are
implemented in the context of the internal and state policy of both Kiev and
Islamabad.
Keywords: Ukraine and Pakistan security; security threats; Ukraine-
Russia relations; Pakistan-India relations; international
politics.
**Doctor of History, Professor of the Department of International Relations and Foreign Policy, Petro
Mohyla Black Sea National University, Mykolaiv, Ukraine. ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-
0610-1702
Ph.D. in History, Associate Professor of the Department of International Relations and Foreign Policy,
Petro Mohyla Black Sea National University, Mykolaiv, Ukraine. ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-
0001-9879-9073
Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor, Head of the Department of International Relations and Social
Sciences, National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine. ORCID
ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0335-6873
Ph.D. in Political Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of International Relations and
Foreign Policy, Petro Mohyla Black Sea National University, Mykolaiv, Ukraine. ORCID ID: https://
orcid.org/0000-0002-7716-085X
*
***
****
582
Iryna Tykhonenko, Oleksandr Trygub, Tetiana Bohdanova y Oleksandr
Shevchuk
Ukraine’s security and Pakistan’s security: mechanisms to overcome threats
La seguridad de Ucrania y la seguridad de Pakistán:
mecanismos para superar las amenazas
Resumen
La esfera de la seguridad juega un papel importante en la política interior
y exterior de los Estados. En este sentido, el objeto del estudio fueron las
amenazas a la seguridad que determinan la estabilidad en Ucrania y Pakistán.
Los autores utilizaron el método de análisis comparativo para establecer
paralelismos entre la seguridad de Ucrania y Pakistán e identicar posibles
formas de mejorarla. Se concluye que, aunque Ucrania como Pakistán
están bastante distantes geopolíticamente, tienen historias y procesos
de construcción del Estado diferentes, se ven afectados por amenazas de
seguridad tradicionales y “no tradicionales”. Denitivamente, el principal
factor unicador de los Estados es el estado antagonista o “enemigo”: India
para Pakistán y Rusia para Ucrania, que se convierte en un catalizador
para la formación de la identidad nacional y la unidad de la sociedad. Los
conictos en Pakistán (Cachemira, Beluchistán y Pastunistán) y Ucrania
(guerra en Donbass, anexión ilegal de Crimea por parte de la Federación
Rusa) han tenido consecuencias comunes y mecanismos para superarlos,
que se implementan en el contexto de la política interna y estatal de tanto
en Kiev como en Islamabad.
Palabras clave: seguridad de Ucrania y Pakistán; amenazas a la
seguridad; relaciones entre Ucrania y Rusia; relaciones
entre Pakistán e India; política internacional.
Introduction
The security sphere is an indicator of the level of interdependence not
only of domestic and foreign policy of the state, but also an attribute of
the construction of the region, where the national interests of its subjects
collide.
Ukraine has identied the priority of its foreign policy to join the European
Union not only as geographical unity with the European Community, but
also in the political, economic and social spheres. Therefore, Ukraine’s
security is directly interconnected and interdependent with EU security. In
parallel with Pakistan, it is possible to condently assert that this state of
South Asia region also has determinism in its policy: security of the state –
security of the region.
Actualization of the European direction of Ukraine’s foreign policy
is connected with the 2014 Revolution of Dignity and the aggression of
the neighbouring state – Russia against Ukraine (the annexation of the
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CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 40 Nº 75 (2022): 581-602
Crimea and the hostilities in eastern Ukraine (Donbas). After the events
of 2014, the reformation of Ukraine’s security policy took place, realizing
the importance of a military factor in the country’s internal and external
policies. The Ukrainian state faced new challenges and threats for itself
the terrorist-minded separatist alignments and the aggression of the
neighbouring state.
In turn, Pakistan, as a South Asia state, also has such characteristic
features as counteraction to the neighbouring state – India, in particular,
using military methods, and the overcoming of the consequences of existing
territorial conicts as well. The consequences of the conicts for Pakistan’s
security environment are common to Ukraine’s realities – the anti-terrorist
operation, the problem of internally displaced persons and the impact of all
security threats on the social and economic spheres of the states.
Therefore, the authors aim to carry out a comparative analysis of the
security of Ukraine and Pakistan. Firstly, it is necessary to thoroughly
consider the threats and their sources, which are identied by states
at the ocial level and objectively exist and destabilize the security and
regional environment to which these states belong. Secondly, consider the
conicts in Pakistan (the problems of Kashmir and Pashtunistan) and the
problem of Donbas in Ukraine in terms of the impact of conicts on states
and mechanisms for overcoming their consequences. The authors limited
the chronology of study by the Russian Federation invasion of Ukraine in
February 2022, because this event changed the objective eld of security
situation in Ukraine and reasons to compare with Pakistan.
1. Research Objectives
The aim of the research was to carry out a comparative analysis of
the security of Ukraine and Pakistan, using a category of threats as a
determinant of estimation of security situation and policy of both countries.
The aim involved the following research objectives:
Consider the threats and their sources, which are identied by
Ukraine and Pakistan at the ocial level and destabilize the security
and regional environment to which these states belong, dividing
them on traditional and non-traditional types.
Analyze the peculiarities of conicts in Pakistan (the problems of
Kashmir and Pashtunistan), the problem of Donbas in Ukraine and
some non-traditional aspects of security, based on the evolution of
relations with the antagonist state (India to Pakistan and Russia to
Ukraine)
584
Iryna Tykhonenko, Oleksandr Trygub, Tetiana Bohdanova y Oleksandr
Shevchuk
Ukraine’s security and Pakistan’s security: mechanisms to overcome threats
Find out similarities between security of Ukraine and Pakistan
(internal and external levels), estimating mechanisms of overcoming
the aftermaths of conicts.
2. Methods and Theoretical Background
The methodological basis of the study is based on a variety of fundamental
scientic methods (problem-chronological, systemic) and methods of
political science in the prism of the paradigm shifts of neorealism and
constructivism. The systemic approach is a background of the study and
allow to consider the security of Ukraine and Pakistan as elements of
national and regional levels of international relations. The method of
comparative analysis makes it possible to reveal the results of comparisons
between the states.
State security is interdependent with the concept of “threat”. B. Buzan,
a representative of the school of neorealism in international relations, is a
supporter of a dualistic approach to the classication of threats to national
security: the territory of the state “may be under internal threat, as well
as threats may come from outside the state” (Buzan, 1983:83). From the
point of view of national security, B. Buzan (Buzan, 1991) distinguishes
between military threats (seizure of territory, invasion, occupation, change
of government, manipulation of policy), economic threats (exports, import
restrictions, price manipulation, debt default, currency control, etc.), and
environmental threats.
Chinese researcher Xiong Guangkai explains two big groups of threats,
calling them “traditional” (connect with the political and military spheres)
and “non-traditional” (terrorism, drug smuggling, serious infectious
diseases, piracy, illegal migration, and environmental, economic, nancial
and information security threats) (Xiong, 2009).
State security is linked to the concept of state identity. The state
determines its regional identity by forming images of “I”, “others” and
“we”, which was explained in the study of the Norwegian constructivist
I. Newman. “Others” are states that have opposing interests, as a result, a
dierent identity. This judgment is similar to the notions of “enemy” and
“threat” in the security system. In turn, the clash of values forms a common
regional identity in the format of “we”, becomes a tool for cooperation in
building a complex of regional security (Taran, 2013).
If there is a conict of identities, then there are territorial conicts
(Patratiy, 2011). This statement describes the conict situations in both
Pakistan and Ukraine. According to S. Huntington’s concept (Huntington,
1993), there is a “clash of civilizations” between Pakistan and India – Muslim
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and Hindu, as well as the religious factor underlying them. In particular,
Ukraine’s orientation towards European integration (European civilization
identity) is a dierence from the Russian identity (“Russian World”) and
the idea of Eurasianism.
Note that the current state of aairs in South Asia, according to Professor
McGill University (Montreal, Canada) T.V. Paul (Paul, 2006), is dened
as a feature of asymmetric conicts in international relations. Pakistan,
from the point of view of T.V. Paul, acts as a “weak” state: the peculiarity of
domestic policy (signs of a “garrison” state, the existence of terrorist groups
and lack of national identity), military-strategic goals (nuclear “deterrence”
of India as an “enemy”) and having a strong ally (China).
At the same time, Pakistani researcher I. Ahmed stressed that Pakistan
will be able to continue its existence in the format of “garrison” state as long
as donors are ready to provide all the necessary resources (Rumi, 2013).
In Ukrainian (and in the world’) science, this question remains in the eld
of little-studied problems (see, for example, works: I. Horobets (Horobets,
2018; 2019a; 2019b), M. Napang, S. Nurhasanah and S. Rohman (Napang
et al., 2019) and etc.
It should be noted that the asymmetry of relations and the asymmetry
of the conict are inherent in the security of Ukraine, as a state that has an
antagonist – the Russian Federation, as a global player in the international
arena, and a state that has a signicant military advantage over Ukraine.
According to the security situation, Ukraine and Pakistan can be
described as states that contribute to the transformation of the regions to
which they belong in the format of regional security complexes (Kotlyar et
al., 2020). However, this study will be based on an analysis of threats and
their consequences for states in the format of national security (internal
situation and counteraction of the antagonist on a bilateral basis).
Therefore, analysing Pakistan’s security environment and Ukrainian
one, it is possible to classify security threats to each of the states, dividing
them into “traditional” and “non-traditional” ones.
For Pakistan’s security, it will look like this:
traditional threats (territorial conicts with India and Afghanistan,
Pakistan and India nuclear confrontation);
“non-traditional” threats (terrorism combined with Islamic
extremism and separatism leading to hostilities, as well as illegal
drug tracking and the problem of Afghan refugees).
For Ukraine it will be the following variant:
traditional threats (aggression of Russia and the warfare in eastern
Ukraine);
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Shevchuk
Ukraine’s security and Pakistan’s security: mechanisms to overcome threats
“non-traditional” (the existence of terrorist-minded alignments of
the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and the Lugansk People’s
Republic (LPR), the problem of internally displaced persons, “gas”
wars with the Russian Federation).
Thus, Ukraine and Pakistan are diverse states with their own
achievements, but they have something consolidating the states – threats
and their consequences.
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Traditional and “non-traditional” threats: evolution of
relations with the antagonist state
It should be emphasized that the rst consolidating factor in the context
of security threats, both for Pakistan and for Ukraine, is the neighbouring
state. For Ukraine – Russia, and for Pakistan – India.
As for Ukraine, the National Security Strategy of Ukraine, approved by
the decree of the President of Ukraine of September 14, 2020 (President of
Ukraine, Decree of the President of Ukraine No. 392/2020, 2020), stated
the actual threats to the national security of Ukraine, among which of the
top priority are Russia’s aggressive actions aimed at attrition of Ukrainian
economy and undermining of social and political stability with the aim of
abolishing the statehood of Ukraine and capture its territory. Thus, Kyiv
ocially recognized Russia as a real threat to the national security of
Ukraine.
Army plays an important role in Pakistan’s policy. In particular, on the
pages of “HILAL” (Pakistan Armed Forces’ Magazine), India is dened as a
state that represents a traditional threat. “In the case of India, there should
not be any confusion in terms of achieving peace, security and stability.
Any weakness in this regard will increase the chances of India aggression”
– notes Professor Rasul Bakhsh Rais (Lahore University of Management
Sciences) in the “HILAL” magazine (Rasul Bakhsh Rais, 2015).
In turn, the conrmation of India as the primary threat to Pakistan’s
security in National Security Policy of Pakistan 2022-2026: “The political
exploitation of a policy of belligerence towards Pakistan by India’s
leadership has led to the threat of military adventurism and non-contact
warfare to our immediate east” (National Security Policy of Pakistan 2022-
2026, 2022:36).
India’s deterrence in the nuclear-missile sphere is topical for Pakistan’s
foreign and regional policy. As for Ukraine and its relations with Russia, the
nuclear sphere is not currently included into the means of counteraction,
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since Ukraine voluntarily gave up its nuclear arsenal in 1994, and signed
the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons (Uatom, 2020).
Although, some Ukrainian politicians and experts are now appealing to the
fact that if Ukraine had nuclear weapons - Russia would not have carried
out aggressive actions against our state.
In the opinion of the authors, between Pakistan and Ukraine and their
relations with the antagonistic states, India and Russia, it is possible to nd
certain common features using as the criteria the nuclear and energy factors
(as “non-traditional” threats). For example, a catalyst showing the periods
of aggravation of relations between Pakistan and India are the nuclear
crises, as a consequence of the Kashmir issue aggravation, and, accordingly,
the strain of relations between Ukraine and Russia can be traced through
the so-called «gas» wars.
Nuclear crises between Pakistan and India, which are directly related to
the existing Kashmir territorial aairs between the states. Russian scientist
M. Braterskiy (Braterskiy, 2003) identies the following crises:
The rst nuclear crisis (1983-1984) was the initiation of nuclear
programs in India and Pakistan. During India’s “Brasstacks” military
exercise, Pakistan moved troops to the state Punjab border. The conict
was resolved, but it has demonstrated the readiness of ocial Delhi to a
preemptive warfare and strikes aimed at eliminating Pakistan nuclear
facilities.
Nuclear crisis “Zarb-i-Momin” (1990). Along with the start of the
largest military exercise in Pakistan’s history, “Zarb-i-Momin”, the guerilla
movement in Kashmir intensied. India accused Pakistan of supporting
terrorists and carried out military strikes on rebel training camps. In
response, Pakistan threatened to use nuclear weapons. An active role in
resolving of the conict was played by the United States.
Nuclear tests of 1998 and the Kargil crisis. In the spring of 1999, Pakistan
troops crossed the control line, separating the Pakistan and India zones of
Kashmir, and captured some Indian posts in Kargil. The United States put
pressure on Pakistan and the conict was resolved.
Crisis of 2008. The events of the 2008, terrorist attack in Mumbai,
which led to new allegations from the ocial Delhi of Pakistan’s support of
separatists in Kashmir.
Events on January 2, 2016 may also have the features of the 2008
format nuclear crisis. This was an attack of jihadists from the “Jaish-e-
Mohammad” terrorist group on Indian air force base in Pethankot, located
in the Indian state of Punjab. After that, the round of bilateral talks at the
level of foreign ministers between Pakistan and India was broken o.
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Ukraine’s security and Pakistan’s security: mechanisms to overcome threats
In turn, the events of February 14, 2019, according to Dr. Adil Sultan
Muhammad (Adil Sultan, 2020) – Balacot Crises – related to the terrorist
attack in Pulwama (Kashmir district controlled by India), where 40 Indian
soldiers were killed. The responsibility for the attack was claimed by the
terrorist group “Jaish-e-Mohammed” (banned in Pakistan, but has some
permanent posts on the Pakistan territory).
Such crises between Pakistan and India had and have a direct impact on
the regional security system in South Asia and have encouraged both states
to increase their nuclear-missile potential.
Energy crises between Ukraine and Russia, in turn, have an impact on
the stability in Europe. The eects of such crises, “gas” wars between states,
are similar to those observed between Pakistan and India, in particular, as
part of the diversication of energy sources supplying. In Ukraine, it is a
decrease in the gas volume procurements from Russia and the search for
new partners, and in Russia, it is the construction of the pipelines “Nord
Stream” and “South Stream”.
The “gas” war of 2005-2006 began when in March, 2005 Russian
“Gazprom” demanded from Ukraine (National Joint Stock Company
“Naftogaz of Ukraine”) to pay for gas from 2006 at prices close to the
European ones (about $250 per 1 000 m³). On January 4, 2006, both
parties succeeded in signing an agreement that ended the practice of barter
trade (gas transit in exchange for gas supplying).
Ukraine-Russia gas conict of 2008-2009. 2009 is characterized by the
fact that from 9:00 a.m. January 1, 2009, Gazprom cut o gas supplies to
Ukraine. On January 18, 2009, after the ve-hour talks, Prime Ministers
Vladimir Putin and Yulia Tymoshenko agreed to resume gas supply to
Ukraine and EU countries. According to new gas contracts, the reference
price for Russian natural gas for Ukraine was $450 US per 1 000 m³.
Russia-Ukraine gas war of 2014 – aggravation of contradictions in
gas supplying between “Naftogaz of Ukraine” and “Gazprom” against the
background of political relations between the RF and Ukraine after the
events of EuroMaydan. From April 1, 2014, “Gazprom” raised the price of
Russian gas to Ukraine from $268.5 to $485 per 1 000 m³ (Espreso, 2014).
February 26, 2018, the last «gas» aggravation of relations between
Ukraine and Russia took place (Gas War of 2018). Russian gas monopolist
lowered the pressure in the pipeline, and that did not allow hydrocarbons to
be supplied to Europe, although Ukraine had not been buying gas directly
from Russia since 2015. Such «gas manipulations» can be regarded as
the undermining of Ukraine’s prestige in the eyes of European partners,
because, despite the aggravation of Ukraine-Russia relations, Ukraine
continues to supply Russian gas to Europe (Vasylchenko, 2018).
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Despite the dierences in the instruments of realization of the
confrontation between the states, both Ukraine-Russia and Pakistan-India
have a certain common ground in this counteraction – “non-traditional”
component – “gas dependence” and “peaceful atom”.
The threat of territorial integrity violation because of a signicant
number of territorial disputes also is very important for ocial Islamabad.
The above-mentioned conicts take place both in the north and in the
south of the country. South conict region Kashmir (Pakistani Azad
Kashmir and Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir). The North conict
region is the place of Pakistan territorial dispute with Afghanistan
(Pakistan’s province Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa). The ocial Islamabad has
to nd common ground with the separatist groups of eastern Balochistan
province, which is on the border with Afghanistan and Iran (Grare, 2013).
For Ukraine, starting from 2014, the main threat is the similar to
Pakistan conict with the neighbouring state and the opposition to the
separatist-minded terrorist groups formed in eastern Ukraine by the DPR
and the LPR, which are ghting by military means against Ukraine with
nancial and military support of Russia.
In parallel, one can observe a slightly similar situation in Pakistan,
where a paramilitary separatist organization Balochistan Liberation Army
(BLA) operates in the province of Balochistan with the purpose to establish
the sovereignty of Balochistan. After a series of attacks using explosive
devices, in 2006 BLA was declared a terrorist organization by the Pakistan
and British governments (Sahni, n.d.).
In 2010, Prime Minister of Pakistan Y.R. Gilani ocially stated that he
had a dossier proving that India was involved in Balochistan conict, but
the Indian authorities denied the statement (Sajjad Syed, 2015). The British
intelligence also shares the opinion of Pakistan that New Delhi is secretly
sponsoring Balochistan rebels to put pressure on Pakistan (Dawn, 2006).
Ukraine has also repeatedly stated the nancing and support of the DPR
and LPR separatists by the Russian party (so-called humanitarian convoys
and cargo from Russia) (Ipressa.ua, 2017). The province of Balochistan in
Pakistan is rich in gas deposits, while Donbas in Ukraine is rich in coal
and shale gas. Therefore, these regions for each of the states are of great
economic importance.
The Pakistan Government is considering the possibility of foreign
participation in conict resolution under the aegis of the United Nations. In
turn, in July 2017, former President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko declared
that Ukraine would insist on placing the United Nations peacekeeping
mission in Donbas on acceptable for Ukraine terms (UNIAN, 2017). It is
necessary to say that both Pakistan (the problem of Kashmir) and Ukraine
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Iryna Tykhonenko, Oleksandr Trygub, Tetiana Bohdanova y Oleksandr
Shevchuk
Ukraine’s security and Pakistan’s security: mechanisms to overcome threats
(the Russian aggression in the east of Ukraine and the annexation of the
Crimea) raise the issues of conicts at the UN General Assembly meetings,
which are criticized by both India and Russia.
3.2.ConictsinPakistanandUkraine:theaftermathsand
mechanismsoftheirovercoming,orhowtondpositiveinthe
negative
The existing conicts in Pakistan lay the groundwork for the formation
of the “Pashtunistan-Kashmir” axis in the security environment of the
state, which testies to the high level of conict in South Asia. Pakistan
is gaining the status of a “middle” state, while responding to both threats,
and Islamabad’s policies depend not only on stability in the state, but also
on strengthening security mechanisms in the region. After all, a stable
Pakistan is an important link in ensuring not only regional but also global
security (Tykhonenko, 2017).
Conicts in Pakistan and Ukraine impact on the state and its internal
stability. It is necessary to highlight the areas that aect these conicts and
are both common to Pakistan and Ukraine and have certain mechanisms of
overcoming the aftermaths of conicts:
conducting of the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO);
army modernization;
the existence of the “enemy state”, which assists in forming a single
national identity;
the problem of refugees (Pakistan) and internally displaced persons
(Pakistan and Ukraine);
fragility of the state as the result of conicts.
It should be emphasised that the mentioned consequences of conicts
are closely interrelated with each other, and the aftermaths of the conicts,
surprisingly enough, have a positive impact on the state as well.
Conducting of the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO)
Speaking about the ATO, it is necessary to emphasize some features
and give some explanations. In Pakistan, anti-terrorist operations are
quite common and, as the practice of recent years shows, are eective as
mechanisms of overcoming the terrorist threat in the state. Such operations
take place in the provinces of Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and
Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The purpose of the
operation is to “mop up” the territories of militants of terrorist organizations
such as “Al-Qaeda”, “Taliban”, “Lashkar-e-Jhangvi”, “Haqqani Network”
etc.
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In particular, Operation “Zarb-e-Azb”, which was launched in 2014 on
the territories of East Waziristan and FATA, is considered as being the most
successful. The casus belli for the military operation of the Pakistan army
(30,000 soldiers) were the attack of militants on the Jinnah International
Airport Karachi (Mujtaba, 2014). Concerning Ukraine, the battles for the
airport in Donetsk were among the heaviest and the most furious at the
initial stage and during the rst phase of the ATO (Sushynskyi and Podіlska,
2020).
April 13, 2014, the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine
headed by the Acting President of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov decided to
start the ATO (Decree “On the Urgent Measures to Overcome the Terrorist
Threat and Preserve the Territorial Integrity of Ukraine” (Law of Ukraine,
2014) was signed April 14, 2014 – the ocial launching of the ATO).
The dierence between Pakistani concept of ATO and Ukrainian one is
that it takes place in Pakistan using coordinated military methods against
terrorists under the command of the Chief of Army Sta (land forces of the
Pakistan Army) R. Sharif, and from 2016 Q. Bajwa with the involvement
of other types of troops and Pakistan Rangers. In Ukraine, the ATO was
subordinated only to the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) without the
right of the military (according to the Minsk Agreements) to use heavy
weaponry and to break the ceasere.
Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted the Law “On Peculiarities of State
Policy on Ensuring Ukraine’s State Sovereignty Over Temporarily Occupied
Territories in Donetsk and Luhansk Regions” (February 24, 2018), which
stated that the Russian Federation was recognized as an occupying state,
while territories in the East of Ukraine were recognized as temporarily
occupied.
The general command by the forces and means of the Armed Forces
of Ukraine in Donbas would not be exercised by the SSU, but by the Joint
Operational Headquarters of the Armed Forces, the general leadership of
which would be carried out by the President of Ukraine as the Supreme
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Also, the post of
Ukraine’s Commander of the Joint Forces was introduced (Pryamyi, 2018).
Therefore, the existence of ATOs in Pakistan and Ukraine has a somewhat
dierent background, however, operations are conducted against separatist
groups that possess weapons and are ghting against the state and the
civilian population using terrorist methods.
Army modernization
It should be noted that Pakistan can be characterized as a “garrison”
state according to some theoretical background. Pakistan is constantly
592
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Ukraine’s security and Pakistan’s security: mechanisms to overcome threats
modernizing its army. According to the Global Firepower Index, a competent
authority in the state’s ranking and modernization of the armed forces of all
countries of the world, in 2022 Military Strength Ranking Pakistan is the 9th
on the list, and Ukraine is the 22th (Global Firepower Index, 2022).
The third Indo-Pakistani War of 1971 became the reason for
modernization of the army in Pakistan and, consequently, the acquisition of
nuclear weapons. In the 1970s, Prime Minister of Pakistan Z.A. Bhutto said
that “…we will eat grass or leaves, even go hungry, but we will get our own
(nuclear weapons)” (Moore, 1993:2). It is necessary to say that in Chapter 1
of the “Pakistan Army Ordinance” of 1965, with the amendments of 2001, it
is noted that Pakistan reserves the right to use nuclear weapons of all types
to protect national security (The Pakistan Arms Ordinance, 1965).
After the events of 2014, Ukraine began to revive its Armed Forces
and upgrade its military-technical base. Ukraine continued to increase its
defence budget. The corresponding indicator of nancing the security and
defense sector in 2021 was 5.92%, and in 2020 it was 5.45% of GDP (Radio
Svoboda, 2021).
Therefore, the similar eect of the conicts for Pakistan and Ukraine is,
oddly enough, a positive impact on the modernization of the army and the
defence capability of the state.
Forming a national identity and overcoming the impact of
the conicts on the social sphere
It should be mentioned that the fact of the existence of an “enemy”
state, an aggressor state became the element of consolidation of the society,
raising of a patriotic spirit.
At the documentary level, the Government of Pakistan in 2014 made a
step towards the consolidation of the society by developing an action plan
till 2025 “One Nation – One Vision” (Pakistan 2025. One Nation – One
Vision, 2014).
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi in his address to Ukrainians
on the Day of Unity on January 22, 2020, noted about unity of Ukrainians
not only through common traditions, culture and religion, but also other
values that are acceptable for every corner of Ukraine and according to
which, in the future, Ukrainians could be identied in every corner of the
planet (Zelenskyy, 2020).
The feeling of patriotism for one’s state becomes a catalyst for the unity
of society.
In Ukrainian realities of 2014, the army was not ready to repulse
Russia’s aggression in full, and therefore civilians (patriots and volunteers),
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conscripts, who subsequently got ATO participant status, took part in
military operations. Such citizens were included in the population group
that the state cared for through the Centers for Assistance to the Anti-
Terrorist Operation Participants.
The State performed some actions for the ATO participants to get land
plots gratuitously, sanatorium-and-spa treatment and rehabilitation, as
well as social and professional transition. Also, on the territory of Ukraine,
the volunteer movement was started with the purpose to assist the military
in the ATO zone (products, necessities, weapons), and the ATO participants.
In particular, it was the Public Union “All-Ukrainian Association of ATO
Participants “Ukrainians-Together!”. Various events, meetings with the
heroes ATO participants were organized with children and students for
raising the patriotic spirit (Ukraintsi Razom, 2016).
In Pakistan, since the gaining of independence, the army had and has a
strong position in the state and such civilian support of ATO is not topically
for Pakistan.
However, if we talk about the counteraction with antagonist state, it
implements not only in military sphere. Very indicative was the fact of re-
imposing a ban on Indian television content in 2018 when I. Khan became
as Pakistan Prime Minister. Note that Ukraine, after a Russian aggression
(although with some delay), also banned the broadcasting of media content
from the Russian Federation, which is a demonstration of the use of
common methods of counteraction to the aggressor state, both in Pakistan
and in Ukraine (Kotlyar et al., 2020).
The social component of the security factor in Pakistan and
Ukraine
According to the dates of ReliefWeb (humanitarian information service
provided by the United Nations Oce for the Coordination of Humanitarian
Aairs (OCHA) on April 30, 2021 in Pakistani territory locates 1,44 million
registered afghan refugees (Relifweb, 2021).
In Pakistan-Afghan relations, the problem of refugees is not purely
bilateral. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)
is involved in the negotiation process between Pakistan and Afghanistan,
providing both advisory and material assistance and facilitate.
The Pakistan Government has been making signicant eorts for many
years to satisfy the needs of internally displaced persons. Registration has
given hundreds of thousands of people the opportunity to get asylum, cash
grants, food, water, sanitation and medical services. At the state level, the
Ministry of States and Frontier Regions (SAFRON) coordinates the changes
in society caused by violence, in particular, the Ministry of Kashmir Aairs
594
Iryna Tykhonenko, Oleksandr Trygub, Tetiana Bohdanova y Oleksandr
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Ukraine’s security and Pakistan’s security: mechanisms to overcome threats
and Gilgit Baltistan regulates the policy concerning internally displaced
persons from the state of Azad Kashmir when the situation on the ceasere
line with India is escalated.
Ukraine faced the issue of internally displaced persons, their registration
and assistance to such persons in 2014. According to the Unied Information
Database on Internally Displaced Persons of the Ministry of Social Policy of
Ukraine, the number of registered internally displaced persons (IDPs) who
moved from the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk
regions, as well as the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol as of
December 31, 2021 – 1 476 148 people. It should be noted that in 2022 after
Russians invasion of Ukraine this total raised to 8 million people (Ministry
for Reintegration, 2022).
In comparison with Pakistan, the problem of internally displaced
persons is less topical in Ukraine for the certain reasons. Pakistan is a
Muslim state, where the religious factor is an important factor in the gender
division of society and the habitation of women and men. In addition, in
Pakistan takes place a constant process of internally displaced persons
returning to the territory of permanent residence after its “cleansing” from
militants and terrorists by the Pakistan army.
It is worth pointing out that, the problem of Afghan refugees in
Pakistan is also great importance. Afghan refugees are closely linked to
drug tracking in Pakistan. Although there are general agreements on
counteractions against drug tracking, such as the Tripartite Agreement
between the Islamic Republics of Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan aimed to
strengthen border cooperation and drug control, however, the struggle at
the national level is in the forefront (United Nations Oce on Drugs and
Crime, 2010).
As noted in the report of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, in
connection with Russian aggression in 2014 and the activities of the DPR
and LPR, Ukraine began to be characterized as a state that international
terrorist organizations may use as “transit” for their activities. The Security
Service of Ukraine has already revealed the facts that Ukrainian territory
was being used by international terrorists. This issue becomes urgent in
the context of justication of possible aggressive actions of the Russian
Federation (air strikes or the ocial bringing of Russian armed forces into
the territory of Ukraine) in the guise of counter-terrorism (Reznikova,
2017). As of 2022 we can see such aggressive Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Social unity and coexistence under the pressure
of instability
Above mentioned implementation of Pakistan-India relations and
Ukrainian-Russia one in the format of “friend / enemy” is not unfounded
595
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and is formed by the relevant situations of both domestic and interstate
nature.
In particular, on August 5, 2019, the Indian government announced
its intention to lift the special status of the Indian-controlled part of the
disputed region of Kashmir, sent thousands of troops there and cut o
telephone and Internet communications in the region. This event has
exacerbated bilateral relations between Pakistan and India as a nuclear
power to the highest level, as evidenced by the consideration of the Kashmir
issue at a closed meeting of the UN General Assembly for the rst time in
50 years.
The Prime Minister of Pakistan I. Khan stressed the pro-fascist
orientation of the Indian government and the deliberate oppression of
Muslims living in Jammu and Kashmir (Khan, 2019). A campaign has been
launched in Pakistan in support of Kashmiri people living in the Indian
states of Jammu and Kashmir. On August 30, 2019, Pakistan hosted a
nationwide Kashmir Hour (Dawn, 2019).
An action in support of the Crimean Tatars – “Crimea is Ukraine” has
been held in Ukraine since 2014. Emphasis is placed on the non-recognition
of the legitimacy of the Russian referendum in Crimea and its annexation,
and condemns the persecution of the inhabitants of the peninsula who
oppose the Russian government, especially the Crimean Tatars. The
Ministry of Foreign Aairs of Ukraine constantly issues notes of protest and
condemnation of Russia’s actions in Crimea (Ministry of Foreign Aairs of
Ukraine, 2020).
Fragility of Ukraine and Pakistan as result of security
instability
According to former Ambassador of Pakistan to the United States,
Husain Haqqani to overcome all of the above-mentioned negative internal
political characteristics and factors of inuence on the foreign policy of
Islamabad it is necessary to do the following:
If the Pakistani establishment decides to turn the corner, it would have
to embrace a new national narrative for the country. To do so, it would have to
change the defensive national narrative about Pakistan’s creation, raison deter and
prospects of survival” (Haqqani, 2014: 112).
The internal environment of the state, its security, stability, social security
and economic development are structural elements that shape not only the
state of the state and the processes in it, but also the vision of this state by
others. It would be analysed the level of state fragility. The independent
research organization The Fund for Peace has developed criteria and
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Iryna Tykhonenko, Oleksandr Trygub, Tetiana Bohdanova y Oleksandr
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Ukraine’s security and Pakistan’s security: mechanisms to overcome threats
presented the overall Fragile State Index 2021 (Fiertz, 2021) rating of all
countries. For our study, the table highlights Ukraine and Pakistan. Ukraine
was included to category “Warning” (position number 91 in 2021 year and
number 92 in 2020) and Pakistan – “Alert” (position number 29 in 2021
year and number 25 in 2020). There is such interdependence – higher
number – more stable situation in the country.
Table No. 01. Fragile State Index (Ukraine, Pakistan)
Security Apparatus
Factionalized Elites
Group Grievance
Economic Decline
Uneven Economic
Development
Human Flight and Brain Drain
State Legitimacy
Public Services
Human Rights and Rule of Law
Demographic Pressures
Refugees and Internally
Displaced Persons
External Intervention
Total
Change from previous year
Ukraine 6.7 8.0 5.7 6.8 3.2 5.8 6.8 4.5 6.0 4.3 4.2 7.8 69.8 0.8
Pakistan 7.9 9.0 8.8 7.1 5.3 6.2 7.3 8.0 7.3 7.9 7.5 8.2 90.5 -1.6
Source: Fiertz (2021).
Conclusion
Threats to the national security of Pakistan and Ukraine have a common
basis in the military-political sphere. In particular, the main external threat
to both states is the neighbouring state. In the case of Pakistan, the main
antagonist in the region is India, and for Ukraine is Russia, which has been
an objective fact since 2014.
Threats to national security are classied as traditional and “non-
traditional”. For Pakistan, the traditional threats are territorial conicts
with India and Afghanistan, the Pakistani-Indian nuclear confrontation, and
the “non-traditional” ones are terrorism combined with Islamic extremism
and separatism, which leads to hostilities, as well as illegal drug tracking
and the problem of Afghans refugees. For Ukraine, this classication can
be applied in the following format: traditional threats – Russian aggression
and the war in eastern Ukraine, and “none-traditional” – the existence of
terrorist separatist groups DPR, LPR, the problem of internally displaced
persons, “gas” wars with Russia.
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The authors emphasize in the article that the consequences of conicts
and mechanisms for overcoming conicts have become common for
Ukraine and Pakistan. Firstly, attempts to unite society and create a single
national identity, raising patriotism. Secondly, conducting anti-terrorist
operation, which in Ukraine’s one transformed in Operation of Joint Forces
and modernisation of army.
Thirdly, and the most commonly for states – the social aspects of the
impact of conicts and mechanisms for overcoming their consequences. All
these common features have inuenced the stability of the state and made
it in some aspects as a “weak” state.
As a result of the study, the authors substantiated the following idea.
Both Ukraine and Pakistan should not only counteract to threats, but also
reform the state policy, improve living standards of the population and
create a positive image on the international scene.
“Allah does not change the condition of a people until they change what
is in themselves”. This Quran Surah, which the Pakistan government has
taken as an epigraph to the framed by the 2030 “Agenda for Sustainable
Development” (Pakistan in the 21st century: vision 2030, 2007:30), is
somewhat consistent with the Ukrainian proverbs sounds like, “God helps
them who help themselves”.
Despite the dicult socio-economic situation in Pakistan, the authorities
use the geopolitical position of the state to receive nancing and investments
from other states. In particular, these are states, whose national interests
include cooperation with Pakistan – the United States and the People’s
Republic of China. “Deterrence” of India in Afghan direction has one more
explanation and direct implementation in the relations between Pakistan
and the People Republic of China. The territory of Pakistan is part of the
Chinese “Belt and Road Initiative”. Ukraine is also a part of such Beijing’s
initiative.
Ukrainian favourable geopolitical position gives it the traits of a “bridge
between the West and the East”. These features should be used more
eectively by the Ukrainian authorities in attracting investments that will
develop our country, and it will not just be in the status of ally for the EU
and the US in “deterrence” of Russia.
Therefore, both Pakistan and Ukrainian authorities should pursue more
exible and eective policy on the domestic scene. In addition, they should
not only wait for assistance from the outside, but also overcome corruption,
develop industry and economy. It is necessary to create such an image of
the state so that it would be interesting to others and known all over the
world not only because of its crises.
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Esta revista fue editada en formato digital y publicada
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Universidad del Zulia. Maracaibo-Venezuela
Vol.40 Nº 75