Instituto de Estudios Políticos y Derecho Público "Dr. Humberto J. La Roche"
de la Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Políticas de la Universidad del Zulia
Maracaibo, Venezuela
Esta publicación cientíca en formato digital es continuidad de la revista impresa
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Vol.40 N° 73
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Vol. 40, Nº 73 (2022), 27-51
IEPDP-Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Políticas - LUZ
Regional leadership as an element of
Ukraine’s geopolitical strategy
DOI: https://doi.org/10.46398/cuestpol.4073.01
Maryna Shulga *
Oksana Deliia **
Neonila Krasnozhon ***
Oleksandr Kuchyk ****
Olha Kravchuk *****
Inna Kostyrya ******
Abstract
The aim of the article was to identify the current status and
problems of Ukraine’s regional associations, and discuss them
in the context of supranational challenges and the COVID-19
pandemic. Observation, the comparative method and the neo-
institutional approach were the main methodological tools
involved. The investigation found that Ukraine intends to
establish various coalitions, blocs and alliances to develop the foreign policy
vector. Countries that thrive to be regional actors, as well as NATO and EU
Member States, engage in this type of cooperation. A gradual intensication
of the growth of the country’s regional leadership was revealed through a
comparative study of Ukraine’s cooperation with dierent countries and
their partnerships. The authors of the research supported the point of
view of adherents to the concept that Ukraine is interested in the political
discourse of regional leadership. It is concluded that expanding the
country’s political and economic opportunities is an appropriate context for
* Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor at the Department of Public Administration, Educational and
Scientic Institute of Public Administration and Civil Service, Taras Shevchenko National University of
Kyiv, 02000, Kyiv, Ukraine. ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8929-8111
** PhD in History Sciences, Director of the Poltava Apllied Cooperative College, 36000, Poltava, Ukraine.
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9806-5328
*** PhD in History Sciences, Assocciate Professor at the Science of Law, Teaching Methods Department,
Department of History and Social Psychology Education, Hryhorii Skovoroda University in Pereiaslav,
08401, Pereiaslav, Ukraine. ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4735-0641
**** PhD in History Sciences, Assocciate Professor at the Department of International Relation and
Diplomacy, Ivan Franko National University of Lviv, 79000, Lviv, Ukraine. ORCID ID: https://orcid.
org/0000-0001-9767-9520
***** PhD in Political Sciences, Associate Professor at the Department of Social and Humanitarian
Sciences, Educational and Scientic Humanitarian Institute, Admiral Makarov National University of
Shipbuilding, 54007, Mykolayiv, Ukraine. ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7802-1934
****** Doctor of Political Sciences, Head of the Department of International Relations, Faculty of PR,
Journalism and Cybersecurity, Kyiv National University of Culture and Arts, 01133, Kyiv, Ukraine.
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2654-8472
28
Maryna Shulga, Oksana Deliia, Neonila Krasnozhon, Oleksandr Kuchyk, Olha Kravchuk y Inna Kostyrya
Regional leadership as an element of Ukraine’s geopolitical strategy
reforming the Western vectors of Ukraine’s foreign policy. It demonstrated
the great potential of regional partnerships, of which Ukraine is a member,
to improve democracy.
Keywords: political risks; geopolitical transformations; regional
leadership; consolidation of states; political platforms.
El liderazgo regional como elemento de la estrategia
geopolítica de Ucrania
Resumen
El objetivo del artículo fue identicar el estado actual y los problemas
de las asociaciones regionales de Ucrania, y discutirlos en el contexto de
los desafíos supranacionales y la pandemia de COVID-19. La observación,
el método comparativo y el enfoque neoinstitucional fueron las principales
herramientas metodológicas involucradas. La investigación encontró que
Ucrania tiene la intención de establecer varias coaliciones, bloques y alianzas
para desarrollar el vector de política exterior. Los países que prosperan
para ser actores regionales, así como la OTAN y los Estados miembros de
la UE, participan en este tipo de cooperación. Se reveló una intensicación
gradual del crecimiento del liderazgo regional del país a través de un
estudio comparativo de la cooperación de Ucrania con diferentes países y
sus asociaciones. Los autores de la investigación apoyaron el punto de vista
de los adherentes al concepto de que Ucrania está interesada en el discurso
político del liderazgo regional. Se concluye que expandir las oportunidades
políticas y económicas del país es un contexto apropiado para reformar los
vectores occidentales de la política exterior de Ucrania. Se demostró un gran
potencial de las asociaciones regionales, de las que Ucrania es miembro,
para mejorar la democracia.
Palabras clave: riesgos políticos; transformaciones geopolíticas;
liderazgo regional; consolidación de los estados;
plataformas políticas.
Introduction
In the current context, any event that is related to international relations
and the interaction of political power between dierent states and territories
is referred to as geopolitics. The evolving scope of geopolitics is undergoing
major changes in the new environment. The world has also faced the most
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CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 40 Nº 73 (2022): 27-51
dicult recent challenge of oering a consistent, collective and adequate
response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Among other things, this also entailed
profound changes in the global order, and countries began to struggle with
the inuence of new regional and global players. All regional and global
states are counting on the emerging geographical regions, such as the Indo-
Pacic, Eurasia and the Arctic, which requires new norms, institutions and
partnerships.
The political, economic, technological and regulatory multipolarity is
the world’s target, where each “pole” implements the necessary policies by
involving the traditional tools of power in dierent ways (Cont, 2020). A
new era requires countries which have dierent conicts on their territories
to succeed in resolving them in the short term, while states that invest in
stability may well determine the future of globalization and the new world
order (Saran and Tirkey, 2021).
The regions of the world play a crucial role in the context of global policy
trends. The regions that have multiple conicts, which are mainly overlapped
between regional competitors capable of inuencing the global security
architecture, undergo particularly noticeable transformations (Heibach,
2021). Not only by the membership in the integrational institutional
association, but also its commitment to the transformational path play an
important role in modern international relations (Dnistryansky, 2021).
In fact, a legal regime emerges between the member countries of the
association, and between the latter and third countries.
The global struggle between liberal democracy and authoritarianism set
in at the beginning of the third decade of the 21st century is very likely to
be one of the decisive conicts in the short and medium run (Freudenstein,
2021). The global geopolitical discourse suggests that the Euro-Atlantic
space covered by NATO and the Eurasian space covered by the SCO are the
two main areas of stability in the world which move towards conicts and
growing uncertainty. These “sustainability islands” can be threatened by
unstable political relations between these two groups, fragmented conicts
and threats to security ((Kukartseva) and Thomann, 2021). It is extremely
important to contain geopolitical threats that come from crisis zones with
due regard to political processes and phenomena of the past.
The geopolitical picture of the world has been signicantly changed
by the collapse of the USSR and the communist system. The states with a
similar political and legal system, which was inherited from the previous
government, emerged in the post-Soviet space. The newly established
countries attempted to promote public solidarity, while opposing Moscow’s
rule and seeking support from Europe and Asia. But Russia, which has
still been a huge nation and tried to remain the strongest player in the
post-Soviet space, had none of these options available (Weir, 2021).
Nevertheless, Russia’s inuence on the former Soviet republics has steadily
30
Maryna Shulga, Oksana Deliia, Neonila Krasnozhon, Oleksandr Kuchyk, Olha Kravchuk y Inna Kostyrya
Regional leadership as an element of Ukraine’s geopolitical strategy
been declining at dierent speed in dierent subregions and sectors. This
process became part of the multidimensional disintegration of the post-
Soviet space (Moshes and Racz, 2019). The newly established states did
not have a wide range of government institutions and inherited a distorted
command economy system. In addition to numerous unresolved internal
challenges, those countries also faced challenges posed by the globalization,
because of their lack of independence experience.
They established regional associations of states with similar interests to
achieve common goals through collective eorts. Numerous unsuccessful
attempts were made in the post-Soviet period to arrange the space around
Russia through regional integration projects. Russia initiated many regional
organizations having one distinctive feature: they provided a very limited
delegation of powers to intergovernmental agencies (Libman, 2020). The
geographical location of post-Soviet countries, such as Ukraine, Georgia,
Azerbaijan and Moldova, where Ukraine was a fundamentally important
geopolitical centre, contributed to strengthening of the associations.
Associations also served the purposes of improving economic and political
relations, special partnerships and broad cooperation at the regional level
in solving international problems. Those countries could be a kind of bridge
between Europe and Asia, the foundation for external opportunities to
improve transport and communication ties (Rud, 2018).
Ukraine has played a signicant but often ignored role in the global
security system for a long time. This region is currently involved in the rivalry
between major powers. According to many analysts, the rivalry trend will
dominate international relations in the decades to come (Masters, 2021).
Ukrainians have clearly determined their position about their future in
Europe, but serious corruption and deep regional splits could impede them
from following this way (Feore, 2021). The 2021 European Court of Auditors
Report stated that the EU is ineective in the ght against corruption among
the high-ranking government ocials in Ukraine (Deutsche Welle, 2021).
Besides, Russia’s policy line in relation to Ukraine has caused the biggest
security crisis in Europe since the Cold War. Ukraine’s European path and
the support of the majority of Ukraine’s population for NATO membership
was rearmed by Russia’s military aggression in Crimea and eastern
Ukraine of the early 2014, which followed the Euromaidan revolution.
The strategies that state use to gain regional leadership entail serious
real consequences both in the respective regions and beyond. So, the case
of Ukraine testies to the need for in-depth research on the state of regional
leadership as an element of the country’s geopolitical strategy.
In view of the foregoing, the aim of the article was to identify the current
state and current issues of regional formats and alliances of Ukraine and
elaborate them in greater detail. The aim involved the following objectives:
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Vol. 40 Nº 73 (2022): 27-51
1) identify current trends in Ukraine’s geopolitical strategy that aect
the establishment of formats and alliances intended to promote
Ukraine’s regional leadership;
2) reveal the current state of Ukraine’s advances in relation to the state’s
aspirations on its path to regional leadership, the main problems
peculiar to the relevant regional interstate cooperation, and possible
ways to solve them.
1. Literature Review
Globalization and qualitative systemic transformations of the recent
decades have prompted scholars to search for more reasoned arguments for
intensifying the process of internationalization and convergence of political
and economic interests of most countries. Some of their studies provided
the denitions of “political risks”, “regional partnership” and “economic
security”, while leaving aside the prospects of the post-Soviet states for
regional leadership. Scientic schools of political science, economics,
sociology, philosophy, international law and others partially studied the
above issues. The study found a lack of fundamental research in the eld
of regional leadership in Ukraine. Dnistryansky (2021) made one of the
newest attempts to study this problem in his work entitled Exacerbation
of Geopolitical Relations in the Postmodern Period and the Situation in
Ukraine, which was taken into account in shaping the author’s position
based on the results of the study of the selected subject matter.
Cont (2020) reveals the relationship between political risks in
international relations and political and strategic transformations in the
EU. The author focused on modern geopolitical relations in the pandemic
context.
The ndings of Feore (2021) on forecasting the political risks of strategic
planning of public policy in Ukraine in the context of globalization were
taken into account in this article. Cadier (2019) made a special contribution
to the study of this issue by detailing the prospects of Ukraine in the
eld of cooperation with the European Union. The works on the realities
of Ukraine’s participation in various associations were of particular
importance for the results obtained in this study. Kapoor (2020) accurately
revealed the prospects of Ukraine in the Lublin Triangle.
In turn, Kovalchuk (2021) in his article GUAM: Promising or Insolvent?
criticized the realities of cooperation of GUAM member states providing
appropriate grounds, and emphasized the reasonability of reforming the
union. The scholar’s position was also reected in this work. The Master’s
(2021) position on the atypical geopolitical situation of Ukraine in the
32
Maryna Shulga, Oksana Deliia, Neonila Krasnozhon, Oleksandr Kuchyk, Olha Kravchuk y Inna Kostyrya
Regional leadership as an element of Ukraine’s geopolitical strategy
context of the aggression of the Russian Federation and the prospects of
this negative impact on the status of Ukraine as the regional leader were
also taken into account.
The review of the scientic literature, which fully or partially covers
the subject matter under research, gives grounds to state that the political
science has not comprehensively studied the phenomenon of regional
leadership of Ukraine, thus madding to the topicality of this research.
Moreover, the historiographical analysis of Ukraine’s political leadership
also demonstrates that its regional aspect is inadequately studied.
2. Methods
The author has previously made a qualitative selection of the original
units for observation, study and analysis. The empirical background
of the study consists of ocial documents, including reports of national
information agencies, articles in print and electronic media, analytical
articles on selected topics, collections of scientic papers. A total of 48
sources were studied. The latest studies on political science conducted
by researchers and practitioners, as well as the latest trends in regional
international transformations in the context of globalization challenges
were the core of the research. Figure 1 shows the structure and stages of the
author’s scientic research on the selected topic.
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CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 40 Nº 73 (2022): 27-51
Figure 1. Staged research design (Own creation).
The main methodological tools were selected in view of the need to
consider the problem through the prism of basic research approaches,
concepts of political leadership and political processes in Ukraine and on
the world stage.
The method of observation in combination with the comparative method
constituted the methodological background of the article. They were used
to reveal the general features of Ukraine’s political strategy and the specics
of its transformation in connection with geopolitical changes and the state’s
aspirations to become a regional leader. The study of Ukraine’s regional
political leadership is based on the principles of universals and particulars
in the Ukraine’s political process. The general tendencies of Ukraine’s
regional leadership were identied through the comparative method. The
said methods allowed combining macro and micro analysis, showing the
multidimensionality of this phenomenon.
The research also involved a neo-institutional approach to the problem
of political regional leadership. The neo-institutional analysis was
conducted at the organizational and individual levels in order to answer
34
Maryna Shulga, Oksana Deliia, Neonila Krasnozhon, Oleksandr Kuchyk, Olha Kravchuk y Inna Kostyrya
Regional leadership as an element of Ukraine’s geopolitical strategy
the following interrelated questions: on the patterns of development,
selection and change of dierent strategies of Ukraine in the context
of political discourse; on the choice of certain organizational measures
and mechanisms for implementing strategies depending on the existing
geopolitical environment; on the peculiarities of the practices of states in
dierent regional associations.
The historical method was another method applied for drawing
prognostic conclusions about the prospects for further implementation
of the declared strategies of Ukraine. This method was used to consider
the genesis of Ukraine after the collapse of the Soviet Union and entry
into the international political space. The gradual entry of Ukraine into
regional formats and alliances was considered, as well as an idea of the
transformation of state policy in view of these processes was formulated
through this method.
The principles of dialectics, empirical and comparative political science,
ethnopolitics, sociology of politics, theory and sociology of management
also underlie the research methodology of the article. In general, the
research objectives were fullled in full due to the methods, techniques and
approaches used.
3. Results
Ukraine has been doing its best to follow its own path as a sovereign
state for almost three decades of independence. The country is focusing
its eorts on closer cooperation with Western institutions, including the
European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The
collapse of the USSR entailed an urgent need for Ukraine to achieve a high
level of regional leadership. As the rest of the post-Soviet states, it needed
the tools to counter Russia’s eorts to concentrate the countries of the
former Soviet Union around Moscow.
Besides, Ukraine needed alternative ways of energy supply, the
establishment of the state as a territory that has inuence not only in the
geographical, but also in the geopolitical context. Ukraine placed a strong
emphasis on strengthening international cooperation, as it had its own
areas of interest related to energy transportation and the transport corridor
development. It had to maintain security, expand markets for its products
and diversify the ways to deliver critical imports. So, Ukraine gradually
aspired to the regional leader’s position.
At the same time, the United States has never hidden its interest in uniting
post-Soviet states in order to make them come out of Russia’s inuence.
The interests of this state ranged from strengthening its own inuence
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CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 40 Nº 73 (2022): 27-51
in the post-Soviet space, implementing energy and transport projects, to
promoting democracy and human rights as the ocially proclaimed goals
of US foreign policy.
Russia has developed several eective tools for its strategy of soft
domination in the post-Soviet space. First and foremost, Russia has used
a combination of economic concessions and sanctions to limit Western
inuence in post-Soviet countries. The second tool that Russia used was
the so-called “frozen conicts” — internal territorial conicts between
sovereign states and unrecognized separatist regions (for example, in
Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine). Third, Russia tried
to launch several integration projects with fewer participants (for example,
the Eurasian Economic Community and the Customs Union) when they
understood that the CIS as an integration platform was too weak. For
example, Azerbaijan was searching for allies in its confrontation with
Armenia supported by Russia; Uzbekistan has fought against an extremist
movement attempting to overthrow the government. Georgia and Moldova
have requested international support to restore their own territorial
integrity as the countries that were dramatically aected by pro-Russian
separatist groups.
These states also tried to nd allies to defend their positions on resolving
internal controversies. Those problems went beyond national borders.
With the exception of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine remained
dependent on oil and gas supplied from or through Russia. Azerbaijan had
signicant oil and gas reserves, having all its exports going either through
the Russian territory or through countries that Russia could destabilize.
A strategic and an economic issue was Moscow’s key role in meeting the
region’s energy needs. Russia successfully manipulated the foreign and
domestic policies of the former Soviet republics through threats to cut o
supplies or redirect export routes.
The geopolitical location of Ukraine is an integral part of the European
and Euro-Atlantic security frameworks, being an important energy and
logistics hub in this area (Decree of the President of Ukraine No. 448/2021,
2021). Russia — Black Sea — Turkey is the main geopolitical division
line of Eurasia. A border between Europe and Asia is considered to pass
through these territories. For Ukraine, the border is in the Azov and
Black Sea, as well as the Kerch Strait. Poland — Ukraine — Turkey is the
next substantial geopolitical consolidation, which crosses the majority of
transport corridors connecting North and Central Asia, Western Europe.
Figure 2 presents the main directions of geospatial and transboundary ties
of Ukraine summarized through the analysis of modern trends.
36
Maryna Shulga, Oksana Deliia, Neonila Krasnozhon, Oleksandr Kuchyk, Olha Kravchuk y Inna Kostyrya
Regional leadership as an element of Ukraine’s geopolitical strategy
Figure 2. Ukraine’s modern geospatial and cross-border
ties (generalized by the author based on the observation
testing results).
Ukraine is actively creating regional formats and join alliances in
the current realities. On October 10, 1997, at the Summit in Strasbourg
(France) Presidents of Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Moldova signed
an agreement on the establishment of the Organization for Democracy
and Economic Development — GUAM, which was based on the idea of
cooperation in the political, military and economic spheres. The need
for the development of four-sided cooperation was emphasized in joint
communiqué in order to improve stability and safety in Europe based on
the principles of respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, inviolability
of borders, democracy, supremacy of law and respect for human rights
(GUAM, 1997).
The interests of the members did not always coincide in full. At the
onset of Organization, its members simply wanted to use each other and the
Organization to protect their national interests. The key to explaining many
GUAM problems, including political ones, is unresolved economic problems
of the poorest countries in Europe multiplied by the global nancial crisis.
For example, limited resources of Georgia hampered its economic growth.
Ukraine’s economy was more developed compared to Georgian one, but
this situation also resulted in increasing uncontrolled “oligarchizing” of the
state’s economic and political system.
The organization was recreated in May 2006 at the GUAM Kyiv Summit
(GUAM, 2006). In 2010, when V. Yanukovych came to power, Ukraine
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CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 40 Nº 73 (2022): 27-51
intensied its cooperation with the Russian Federation signicantly, thus
reducing Ukraine’s interest in GUAM. The association experienced a surge
of its activity after the Revolution of Dignity, the annexation of the Crimea
and the Donbas conict, because Ukraine decided to depart from the
Russian Federation policy and restore the GUAM platform.
The problem was lack of coordination of actions between members
of the organization. One priorities of cooperation were often changed by
others, and regrouping of forces and vectors caused serious contradictions,
thus hindering the implementation of very protable programmes. It is also
necessary to take into account mostly declarative assistance of the countries
that were not members of this organization, and their material support was
insucient. GUAM developed several programmes during this period, that
could be implemented in a particular situation provided the interest of the
EU Member States. As a consequence, external partners didn’t support
those energy transit programmes, or they proved to be uncompetitive.
The adoption of the Development Concept for the GUAM Transport
Corridor in 2013 at the 8th GUAM Working Group on Transport meeting
attended by GUAM member states in Tbilisi was a major result of the
joint work (Liga Law, 2013). The development of partnerships with other
countries, including the United States, Japan, but more importantly
— with neighbouring European countries — members of the Visegrad
Group (Poland and the Czech Republic) was also of great importance in
the organization’s activities. The GUAM Organization for Democracy
and Economic Development still depends heavily on the support of non-
regional players and the domestic political situation in the member states.
In 2017, Prime Minister V. Hroisman promised to reanimate the GUAM
(Government Portal of Ukraine, 2017a). The rst GUAM Summit in nine
years was held at the Ukraine’s initiative, where goals for a free trade
zone were set and the solution of transport corridor issues were suggested
(Government Portal of Ukraine, 2017b). The issues of cooperation between
GUAM member states in the context of new issues — counteraction to the
COVID-19 pandemic; conicts in the GUAM region — were raised at the
13th session of the GUAM Parliamentary Assembly in February 2021 (Milli
Majlis of the Republic of Azerbaijan, 2021).
The current areas of partnership, including the growth of inter-
parliamentary cooperation, the partnership of the GUAM Parliamentary
Assembly with the Baltic Assembly were given special consideration. The
member states consider the prospects of GUAM in the context of the platform
for the fullment of trade goals and its transit potential. The establishment
of the GUAM International Center for Innovation and Technology Transfer
can be noted as a very positive step in this regard (Ministry for Strategic
Industries of Ukraine, 2021). The Center will be part of the future GUAM
and Partners International Innovation Development Corporation.
38
Maryna Shulga, Oksana Deliia, Neonila Krasnozhon, Oleksandr Kuchyk, Olha Kravchuk y Inna Kostyrya
Regional leadership as an element of Ukraine’s geopolitical strategy
This context determines the main direction of the Foreign Policy
Strategy of Ukraine (Decree of the President of Ukraine No. 448/2021,
2021), including the creation of regional alliances in Ukraine to improve
security and gain a foothold as a strong and inuential state of the Central
Europe (Figure 3).
Figure 3. Reformation vectors of achieving regional leadership
by Ukraine (based on the results of document analysis and
observation).
Ukraine has made steady progress in the European Neighborhood Policy
and the Eastern Partnership within the framework of its stable European
course. Traditionally, European integration has been one of the most
intensive segments of Ukraine’s foreign policy. The Ukrainian government,
as other Eastern Partnership countries, is focused on the implementation
of the Association Agreement and on the fullment of other commitments.
In May 2021, Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia signed a memorandum
that formalizes their cooperation on a joint path towards EU membership,
which documented a number of goals, including joint diplomatic activities
and trilateral consultations (Association Trio, 2021). The Foreign Ministers
of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine met for the rst time as the Association
Trio in Brussels on June 24, 2021. They identied the priorities under the
Eastern Partnership, including integration into the EU internal market,
closer cooperation with the EU in the transport, energy sectors, digital
market, green economy, healthcare, and improving security cooperation.
In July 2021, the Heads of Georgia, the Republic of Moldova and
Ukraine, as the Association Trio, took part in the Summit held in Batumi in
order to improve trilateral cooperation on European integration between
the countries (Batumi Summit Declaration, 2021). On December 15, 2021,
the Joint Declaration was adopted at the Eastern Partnership Summit held
in Brussels, which documented that the EU recognizes the aspirations
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and choice of three associated partners — Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine
— to enhance cooperation with the EU adhering to the dierentiation and
inclusion principles (Agenda.ge, 2021; Crimea Platform, 2020).
The Lublin Triangle consisting of Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania was
established on July 28, 2020, which initiated a new format of regional
cooperation. The Ministers of Foreign Aairs, heads of national security
agencies, and representatives of the high-ranking legislative bodies of
Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania held a number of meetings within a relatively
short period of time. The initiated Youth Lublin Triangle Forum also
showed to good advantage. The Declaration on Joint European Heritage,
the Lublin Triangle Roadmap for Cooperation and the Action Plan against
Disinformation were signed in Vilnius on July 6, 2021 (Ministry of Foreign
Aairs of Ukraine, 2021a).
The Lublin Triangle was primarily aimed at countering Russia’s
aggressive policy in the region; military and defence cooperation through the
involvement of NATO and EU; cybersecurity and tackling disinformation.
Eliminating the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic is a very serious
objective for this organization. Another focus is economic and energy
cooperation, including halting the Nord Stream-2 project. The Lublin
Triangle is also intended to expand the scope of cooperation in the eld of
culture, science and education, cooperation between security agencies, etc.
The EU- and US-led Three Seas Initiative is directly mentioned in the
joint declaration. It covers 12 EU Member States between the Adriatic Sea,
the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea intending to develop the cooperation in
the energy, transport and digital sectors. The Initiative focuses on creating
the North-South Corridor in order to reduce the dependence of post-Soviet
states in the region on Russian energy pipelines.
Another initiative, which will also help strengthen Ukraine’s regional
leadership, is also worth mentioning. The working visit of the President
of Ukraine V. Zelenskyi to the Republic of Turkey on October 16, 2020
resulted in an agreement establishing a new — Quadriga (2 + 2) — format of
political and security consultations with the involvement of Foreign Aairs
and Defence Ministers of Ukraine and Turkey. Kyiv hosted the inaugural
meeting in a new format on December 18, 2020.
The quadriga format to be held annually is intended for the discussion
of the most pressing policy and regional security issues, coordinating
joint actions, and developing new politics, security, economic and defence
projects. It is worth mentioning that Turkey is recognized one of Ukraine’s
most important trading partners. For 9 months of 2021, the trade volume
between Ukraine and Turkey amounted to $5.00 milliard ( 49.9%), exports
— $2.75 milliard ( 65.8%), imports — $2.25 milliard ( 34.2%).
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Maryna Shulga, Oksana Deliia, Neonila Krasnozhon, Oleksandr Kuchyk, Olha Kravchuk y Inna Kostyrya
Regional leadership as an element of Ukraine’s geopolitical strategy
The main commodity items distributed as follows: exports — ferrous
metals (53.4%), cereals (15.9%), ores, slag and ash (7.1%); imports —
nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery (10.4%), mineral fuels; oil and rened
products (8.9%), ferrous metals (6.9%). The Ukraine’s positive balance
for this period amounted to $495.84 million (Embassy of Ukraine in the
Republic of Turkey, 2021).
Ukraine’s integration into the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC),
which was established in 1992 at the initiative of Russia and Turkey, is a
very important indicator of its aspiration for regional leadership. This
organization consists of twelve member states: Azerbaijan, Albania,
Armenia, Bulgaria, Greece, Georgia, Moldova, Romania, Russia, Serbia,
Turkey, Ukraine. The aim of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Black
Sea Economic Cooperation (PABSEC) is to provide support for the
parliamentary dimension in attaining the goals the BSEC organization, as
well as to consolidate the legal framework for multilateral economic, trade,
social, cultural and political cooperation in the Black Sea region.
The importance of access to the Black Sea and its resources in order
to create an economic and logistical hub between Europe, Asia and
Africa determines Ukraine’s interest in the BSEC. The Crimean Platform
initiated by the President of Ukraine V. Zelenskyi to restore sovereignty
over Crimea was ocially launched in September 2021 (Crimean Platform,
2021). The Crimean Platform is a consultation format aimed at improving
the eectiveness of the international response to the occupation of the
peninsula by the Russian Federation, having deoccupation as its ultimate
goal. The platform will operate at three main levels: intergovernmental,
parliamentary and expert.
In 2020, the election of the Ukrainian Ambassador to Hungary,
Lyubov Nepop, as President of the Danube Commission, an international
intergovernmental organization established for the development of free
navigation on the Danube, strengthened Ukraine’s regional leadership.
The members of the Danube Commission are Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary,
Germany, Moldova, Russia, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Ukraine and
Croatia. It was the rst time in 70 years when the representative of Ukraine
was appointed responsible for policy development in this inuential Central
European organization (Embassy of Ukraine in Hungary, 2021).
Centuries-old foreign relations of Ukraine with Latvia are the example
of the development of bilateral relations. In 2019, the volume of bilateral
trade amounted to $564 million, trade growth was over 2% with a surplus
of $136 million (Government Portal of Ukraine, 2020; The presidential
oce of Ukraine, 2021). The 2020 pandemic caused a 17.3% decrease in
trade in goods and services between Ukraine and Latvia, which amounted
to $470.3 (Embassy of Ukraine in the Republic of Latvia, 2021).
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The expansion of economic and trade cooperation between the two
countries despite the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is especially
noteworthy. The development of an interactive electronic platform —
Trade House Ukraina — launched in 2020 proves the productive work
of the Intergovernmental Ukrainian-Latvian Commission on Economic,
Industrial, Scientic and Technical Cooperation. Latvia has consistently
supported Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The Presidents of Ukraine and Latvia signed a joint Declaration on the
European Perspective of Ukraine in May 2021 (Oce of the President of
Ukraine, 2021). Latvia also aspires for regional leadership. It has been a
member of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe
(OSCE) since 1991, the Council of the Baltic Sea States since 1992,
the Council of Europe since 1995, NATO and the EU since 2004. It is a
member of the Baltic Assembly established in 1991 — an advisory body on
cooperation between the parliaments of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
The analysis identied the main regional formats and alliances that
promote Ukraine’s movement towards regional leadership (Figure 4).
Figure 4. Ukraine’s membership in the regional formats and
alliances (based on the results of the author’s analysis).
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Maryna Shulga, Oksana Deliia, Neonila Krasnozhon, Oleksandr Kuchyk, Olha Kravchuk y Inna Kostyrya
Regional leadership as an element of Ukraine’s geopolitical strategy
It is reasonable to emphasize the results of the outlined cooperation of
Ukraine with other states. As regards the Danube Commission, a remarkable
point was the election of the Ambassador of Ukraine to Hungary, L. Nepop,
as the President of the Danube Commission. The 13th session of the GUAM
Parliamentary Assembly decided on cooperation between the states in
responding the Covid-19 pandemic and extending the transit capacity.
The Crimean Platform is a consultative format initiated to increase thew
eectiveness of the international response to Russian occupation of the
peninsula.
Quadriga established the foundation for a new format of consultations
with the Republic of Turkey on political and security issues. The Association
Trio has established a trilateral enhanced cooperation between Ukraine,
Georgia and Moldova on European integration. In turn, the Lublin
Triangle became an eective format for regional cooperation with Poland
and Lithuania. The intensied Ukraine’s interstate cooperation shows the
positive trend of implementing reformational changes in the country on the
its path to a sustainable status as a regional leader.
4. Discussion
The results of the analysis point to the potential for a “cross-border
closed globalization” that will be less free and open than before. Strategic
considerations, political trust, climate threats, technological threats and
health damage justify state political and economic transformations. Saran
and Turkey Supported the author’s position. The researchers provided
that countries tend to create smaller groups in order to establish exible
partnerships on particular issues that promote cooperation between like-
minded countries (Saran and Tirkey, 2021; Milli Majlis of the Azerbaijan
Republic, 2021).
The inecient multilateralism and globalization within the ongoing
restructuring require new correctional mechanisms which would not
compromise the benets that these processes oer. The intensifying
competition between major powers makes medium-sized states more
persistent in pursuing their interests (Thompson et al., 2021; Ocial web-
site of the president of Ukraine, 2021).
It was found that the regional leadership can be an ancillary goal for the
regional state within its comprehensive foreign policy strategy. But there
may be specic situations where regional leadership will not be perceived
as a desirable goal, as Nolte and Schenoni (2021) state. Proper regard shall
be paid to the fact that a restrictive international environment can obstruct
regional leadership, make larger states apprehend regional states, thus
preventing the delegation of functions.
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The government’s ability to obtain and mobilize resources for regional
leadership can be adversely aected by unfavourable domestic events, such
as economic crises and corruption scandals (Nolte and Schenoni, 2021).
Regions are still important for understanding the complex evolution and
the change of the nation-state worldwide system. When territories become
“geopolitical units”, they mostly belong to the part of economic or political
systems. Sometimes they show synergy and integration, and sometimes
conict and fragmentation. States that often belong to economic, political
or cultural systems at the global and regional levels are the most advanced
“geopolitical units” (Puntigliano, 2021).
The dicult international situation implies synergies between dierent
players with the purpose of achieving geopolitical stability on the Eurasian
continent. In the long run, a new Eurasian geopolitical architecture based on
the new doctrine of international organizations’ overlapping circles would
be a signicant factor in the development and enhancement of Eurasian
security. In a multicentre world, will be dicult to coordinate competing
geopolitical projects and stabilizing the friction between the poles of power
that oscillate between hidden rivalry and cooperation in the way other than
through the balance of power (Thomann, 2020).
In this context, involving the international partnership in solving security
problems, eliminating obstacles to Ukraine’s path to regional leadership
are the most important things for Ukraine’s leaders (Trenin, 2021; Ministry
of strategic industries of Ukraine, 2021). In particular, concerns about a
relationship between the presence of Russian forces and the risk of military
escalation were caused by a build-up of Russian troops along the border
with Ukraine in late 2021 (Mînzărari, 2021).
In 2021, rapidly changing global challenges have made Ukraine to
formulate its geopolitical strategy clearer than ever. The position of the
President of Ukraine V. Zelenskyi is a striking example of the above —
he considers that Ukrainian diplomacy should ght o the “poor relative
complex” and feel like a regional leader (European, 2021). In 2020, the
Secretary General of GUAM addressed the participating countries and called
on them to focus their eorts on nding serious prospects for cooperation
with the OSCE and NATO.
In the same year, the Secretary General of GUAM addressed the member
states urging them to focus their eorts on nding serious prospects for
cooperation with the OSCE and NATO. Efendiev (2020) emphasized that
such cooperation will aect the security process at a later time, and will
become an important component of territorial parliamentarism.
We can conclude that Ukraine can have a serious support on its way to
regional leadership on the part of such an organization as GUAM. For this
purpose, it is necessary to give consideration to the extensive experience
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Maryna Shulga, Oksana Deliia, Neonila Krasnozhon, Oleksandr Kuchyk, Olha Kravchuk y Inna Kostyrya
Regional leadership as an element of Ukraine’s geopolitical strategy
of GUAM, as well as relevant mistakes and ways to solve them. In 2020, V.
Zelenskyi stated that GUAM can be made a serious union by breathing new
life into it (Oce of the President of Ukraine, 2020). At the same time, the
evaluation of GUAM’s eectiveness gives grounds to state that there have
been no signicant or even small achievements so far (Kovalchuk, 2021).
Despite GUAM’s failure to achieve its goal, its member states can easily join
other entities and adapt by nding new ways of economic integration and
further development (Pincu et al., 2020).
In turn, the main goal of the Eastern Partnership as a component of
the European Neighbourhood Policy is designed to reinforce political
association and expand economic integration between the EU and its
eastern neighbours (Cadier, 2019). The Eastern Partnership initiative did
not provide for the expected stimulus from the EU — the membership
prospect (Mirel, 2021). The imitative focuses on reforming not only the
Eastern Partnership but also the EU’s policy towards Eastern Europe as a
whole (Blewett-Mundy, 2020; European Truth, 2021). So, we can conclude
that the Association Trio was the rst regional initiative of the Eastern
Partnership to clearly set its own priorities. The Association Trio cleared
the way for a more active phase of the Eastern Partnership (Sheiko, 2021).
According to N. Kapoor, the success of the ambitions of the Lublin
Triangle will depend on several factors, some of which are out of control
of its members (Kapoor, 2020). The possible level of cooperation between
Ukraine and the EU/NATO will have an impact on the destination of
this organization. Ukraine’s accession to the Lublin Triangle clearly
demonstrated its intention to adhere to the Western direction in its foreign
policy with the support of other like-minded states. The strategic importance
of partnerships, such as the UAE with Central and Eastern Europe, should
also be taken into account in this context. A close alliance with the United
Arab Emirates will enhance the inuence of the Lublin Triangle member
states on transatlantic partners (Krzymowski, 2020).
Therefore, we can argue that the author’s position on the prospects
of Ukraine’s future regional leadership and its impact on the geopolitical
situation in the world is properly justied. Moreover, it found support of
the representatives of both theory and practice. Further scientic research
in this area is also substantiated by the active actions of the Government of
Ukraine.
Conclusion
International cooperation will retain its core place in the international
system for the next decade. States are currently considering new multilateral
cooperation scenarios, although they are arbitrary and variable in nature.
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Regional entities which thrive for the solution of common security
issues, apart from economic, trade and humanitarian cooperation, are a
distinguishing feature of the current international relations.
This situation promotes the development of qualitatively new forms
of regional leadership as a component of geopolitical strategy. The
establishment of various intergovernmental associations indicates that the
countries consider all types of cooperation through the prism of security.
The current realities dictate that only a comprehensive view of threats and
the ways to eliminate them makes it possible to create a single organization
and institutionalize ways to respond to security challenges. This once
again testies to the fact that current geopolitical trends are dominated by
increasing regionalism and creation of blocks.
Ukraine’s aspirations for regional leadership as part of its geopolitical
strategy is expressed through the transformation of formats of interaction
with government entities and associations of dierent levels. In turn,
Ukraine-EU-NATO relations are being intensied. The current state of
regional formats and alliances indicates Ukraine’s adherence to the European
vector of reforms and its signicant progress in this area. Reformatting and
structuring of mutually benecial cross-border partnerships with other
leaders of the global political arena is still the main objective of Ukraine’s
geopolitical strategy.
The main risk of declarative Ness of gradual implementation of the
outlined strategy is Russia’s aggression on the territory of Ukraine remains.
Ukraine needs regional and global support in this matter. In its turn, the
European Union commits to strengthen dialogue and partnership with
Ukraine in the context of its possible membership. The author’s further
research will deal with foregrounding the results of the implementation of
Ukraine’s declared regional leadership strategy in the short term.
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