Instituto de Estudios Políticos y Derecho Público "Dr. Humberto J. La Roche"
de la Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Políticas de la Universidad del Zulia
Maracaibo, Venezuela
Esta publicación cientíca en formato digital es continuidad de la revista impresa
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Vol.39 N° 68
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Recibido el 19/07/2020 Aceptado el 18/02/2021
ISSN 0798- 1406 ~ De pó si to le gal pp 198502ZU132
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de Es tu dios Po lí ti cos y De re cho Pú bli co “Dr. Hum ber to J. La Ro che” (IEPDP) de la Fa-
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Vol. 39, Nº 68 (Enero - Junio) 2021, 369-384
IEPDP-Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Políticas - LUZ
Chaos Theory: The Case of the COVID-19
Pandemic in Wuhan, China from the
perspective of international relations
DOI: https://doi.org/10.46398/cuestpol.3968.23
Natalia Vladimirovna Kovalevskaia *
Iuliia Alexandrovna Fedoritenko **
William Leahy ***
Abstract
The objective of the article was to reveal the international
imbalances caused by the COVID-19 pandemic through the
coordinates of chaos theory. Methodologically it is a critical essay
based on documentary observation. To understand the current
state of world politics and the balance of power in international
relations, it is appropriate to use chaos theory. At the beginning
of the article, the origins of chaos theory are an interdisciplinary study, and
its basic concepts are introduced. The value of using chaos theory and its
great potential for analysis and applications in the study of international
relations is shown in the example of the 2019-2020 events in Wuhan is
the capital of Hubei Province in the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
associated with the onset of a COVID-19 viral infection that has spread
around the world. At the end of the article, conclusions are drawn and the
strengths and weaknesses of the use of chaos theory in dialectical relation
to international relations are revealed, both as a eld of study and at the
same time as geopolitical reality.
Keywords: chaos theory; social change of complex systems; COVID-19
pandemic, criticality; self-organized criticality.
* Saint Petersburg State University, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation. ORCID ID: https://orcid.
org/0000-0003-0864-0937. Email: nk@bossner.de
** Saint Petersburg State University, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation. ORCID ID: https://orcid.
org/0000-0002-2197-3093. Email: st012685@student.spbu.ru
*** MGIMO (Moscow State Institute of International Relations), Moscow, Russian Federation. ORCID ID: https://
orcid.org/0000-0002-7743-3432. Email: w.leahy@my.mgiomo.ru
370
Natalia Vladimirovna Kovalevskaia, Iuliia Alexandrovna Fedoritenko y William Leahy
Chaos Theory: The Case of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Wuhan, China from the perspective of
international relations
Teoría del Caos: el Caso de la Pandemia COVID-19
En Wuhan, China desde la perspectiva de las relaciones
internacionales
Resumen
El objetivo del artículo fue revelar los desequilibrios internacionales
ocasionados por la pandemia de COVID-19 mediante las coordenadas de
la teoría del caos. Metodológicamente se trata de un ensayo crítico con
base a la observación documental. Para comprender el estado actual de la
política mundial y el equilibrio de poder en las relaciones internacionales,
es apropiado utilizar la teoría del caos. Al inicio del artículo se consideran
los orígenes de la teoría del caos como un estudio interdisciplinario y se
introducen sus conceptos básicos. El valor de utilizar la teoría del caos y
su gran potencial de análisis y aplicaciones en el estudio de las relaciones
internacionales se muestra en el ejemplo de los eventos de 2019-2020 en
Wuhan es la capital de la provincia de Hubei en la República Popular China
(PRC). asociado a la aparición de una infección viral COVID-19 que se ha
extendido por todo el mundo. Al nal del artículo, se hacen conclusiones
y se revelan las fortalezas y debilidades del uso de la teoría del caos en
relación dialéctica con las relaciones internacionales, tanto como campo de
estudio y al mismo tiempo como realidad geopolítica.
Palabras clave: teoría del caos; cambio social de sistemas complejos;
pandemia de COVID-19, criticidad; criticidad
autoorganizada.
Introduction
In modern scientic theory and experience, interdisciplinary knowledge,
methods, and research tools are gaining popularity. Researchers apply
the concept of inter-disciplinarity in the narrow and broad meaning. In
the narrow meaning, interdisciplinary studies are those, which integrate
knowledge created within two different disciplines. In a broad sense,
interdisciplinary studies include also multi-disciplinary studies – that
is, those seeking to integrate knowledge developed within three or more
disciplines. International studies as an interdisciplinary eld of knowledge
seeks integrating achievements of many disciplines. In this article the
relevance of use of chaos theory and its interdisciplinary methods in
International Relations are covered.
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Vol. 39 Nº 68 (Enero - Junio 2021): 369-384
1. Methods
In this study chaos theory and self-organized criticality force were
applied to the case of COVID-19. Periodic pandemics in China, including
the coronavirus pandemic were gured out under the scope of chaos and
epidemic theory. Critical-point in epidemics of COVID-19 in China.
Stagnation and further recovery according to chaos theory were presented.
2. Origins of chaos theory
A breakthrough was achieved in 1977, dissipative structures were
discovered by Ilya Prigogine. These structures are systems which have no
condition of thermodynamic equilibrium, and get acquire the quality of
complex, often chaotic structures. Their behavior contradicts the principles
of classical mechanics and comply with the principles of the theory of
relativity. The concept of nonequilibrium thermodynamics, as well as the
idea of the concurrent coexistence of order and disorder (entropy in the
language of thermodynamics) were introduced into the study (Prigogine
and Stengers, 1986). Innovation of I. Prigogine’s theory lies in recognizing
the positive role of chaos in physics. The growth of disorder (entropy)
in physical systems leads to the destruction of systems, nevertheless it
gives prospects for their transformation with qualitatively new system
requirements (Prigogine, 1977).
A factor (attractor) determines the choice in the system and acts as a
reference point to indicate the way for further change. Such a choice occurs
during the bifurcation point by the system. The number of possible ways of
developing the system at such a point can be huge and limited only by the
number of factors (Prigogine, 1977).
3. Chaos theory in research of International Relations
Such complex systems as international relations are subject to the
principle of self-organizing criticality and they evolve to a critical stage at
which a minor event triggers a chain reaction that can affect many elements
of the system.
A stable structure and stability are inside the most visible
disorder and non-linear processes. Chaos theory describes the statistical
trends of a large number of interacting objects and factors, based on the
nonlinear behavior of the system (Prigogine, 1977).
International relations are also an example of a chaotic system. One of
the key concepts of chaos theory, such as self-organizing criticality (SOC)
is an effective tool for scientic analysis. In the eld of national strategy,
the use of chaos theory is not only appropriate, but also most effective.
Understanding the nature of chaos and adapting the model in political
372
Natalia Vladimirovna Kovalevskaia, Iuliia Alexandrovna Fedoritenko y William Leahy
Chaos Theory: The Case of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Wuhan, China from the perspective of
international relations
science can change the way we consider the interaction of actors – the
interactive systems constantly bring themselves to a critical state through
organization, as in nonlinear analysis – a small event can trigger a chain
reaction that can lead to collapse (Shimada and Koyama, 2015).
Chaos theory examines the mechanism of unpredictable (random)
phenomena in the so-called nonequilibrium systems, their evolution
consists of alternating dynamic and chaotic stages. Chaos plays the most
important role for such systems, since it is at the stage of chaos (more
precisely, at the exit from it) that new valuable information appears.
Within the dynamic stages, the system can be calculated, and a reliable
prediction can be made for it. On the contrary, in the chaotic stage, getting
to the point of bifurcation, the state of the system changes extremely
rapidly in leaps and bounds. In fact, this is an algorithm that determines
the behavior of an object at a bifurcation point, which is a certain subset of
the phase space of system states.
Each possible state of the system is a point in its phase space (the
space of possibilities of the system). And the trajectory of the system in
this space shows the dynamics of the transitions of the system from one
state to another. A transformation in the state of the system, initiated at
the bifurcation point, can turn out to be unpredictable. In decision-making
practice, the situation when it is necessary to make decisions at bifurcation
points is called Radical Uncertainty (RU).
4. Chaos theory and self-organized criticality force on the
example of COVID-19
The good example how dependent from changes occurred in one place
is the COVID-19 pandemic. At the end of 2019, Wuhan became the location
for the severe coronavirus that in several months spread to the entire world.
By the most common version the virus originated in Wuhan’s downtown
seafood market.
World Health Organization (WHO) started tracing the growth of
COVID-19 cases from the very beginning, organizing global data exchange
between states. By the end of January 2020, 20 countries and territories
had reported cases of COVID-19. The number grew rapidly to 202 by the
end of March. Altogether, there are 3 059 642 cases of infection and 211 028
deaths reported. COVID-19 has spread to all continents except Antarctica,
and less than 30 countries, territories and areas have reported no COVID-19
cases (most of them are situated in the Pacic islands) (Committee for the
Coordination of Statistical Activities, 2020).
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Vol. 39 Nº 68 (Enero - Junio 2021): 369-384
Figure 1: Number of conrmed COVID-19 cases, by date of report and
WHO region, 30 December 2019 through 1 May 2020.
Source: World Health Organization (2020a).
For the rst two months of 2020, China showed a sharp reduction of
output, which can be explained by the celebrations of the Chinese New
Year at the end of January 2020 as well as the beginning of the lockdown
of Wuhan and other regions to contain the virus at the same time (Third
World Network, 2020). It remains to be seen; how fast China will catch up
the losses made during the rst quarter of 2020.
On January 23, 2020, Wuhan went into strict lockdown in order to stop
the spread of the virus. In early February, the outbreak in Wuhan hit its
breaking point (Yuan et al., 2020).
The spread of the novel virus is not dictated by the geographical distance
from Wuhan in China – as the outbreak in northern Italy shows. The routes
of airplanes and cruise ships appear to inuence the dissemination of the
virus in the early phase. Entangled webs, not concentric circles, are a more
appropriate representation of the propagation of the supply shocks in the
case of COVID-19 (Baldwin and Weder Di Mauro, 2020).
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Natalia Vladimirovna Kovalevskaia, Iuliia Alexandrovna Fedoritenko y William Leahy
Chaos Theory: The Case of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Wuhan, China from the perspective of
international relations
Figure 2: Year-on-year weekly growth rates, all mail classes
(international mail items).
Source: Baldwin and Weder Di Mauro (2020).
The dotted line displays the tendency. The dashed vertical line indicates
the lockdown of Wuhan international airport. The red line depicts annual
growth rates. The spikes in 2019 correspond to seasonal holidays.
The epidemic, began in one of the Chinese provinces, in the short term
has caused global disruption in social and economic systems. Under the
worst-case scenario, it is estimated that because of COVID-19 by 1 March
2020, the total number of people conrmed with COVID-19 in China had
reached 80 174 and a total of 2 915 people had died of the disease, in the
world grand total of conrmed with COVID-19 – 7 169; 104 people died
(World Health Organization, 2020b).
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CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 39 Nº 68 (Enero - Junio 2021): 369-384
Figure 3: How the Virus Got Out (Wu et al., 2020)
Figure 4: Situation by Country, Territory & Area.
Source: World Health Organisation (2020b).
Millions of people have faced extreme poverty. Sporting, religious,
political, and cultural events were delayed or cancelled. It also affected
education process because schools, universities, and colleges have been
closed. It is obvious that the coronavirus pandemic started in Wuhan affected
all social shears across scales from global to national and subnational levels.
The main actors, in the traditional sense, have a decisive inuence
on the course of events in international relations. Chaos theory and self-
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Natalia Vladimirovna Kovalevskaia, Iuliia Alexandrovna Fedoritenko y William Leahy
Chaos Theory: The Case of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Wuhan, China from the perspective of
international relations
organized criticality force us to reconsider this statement. Both concepts
show the disproportionate effects that small actors can provoke. On this
basis, every actor, be it governments, organizations, or individuals in
political critical systems, produces an active force that provokes a change in
the original position and creates a critical state (Byeon, 2000). And the case
with coronavirus in Wuhan illustrated that clearly.
5. Chaos and epidemic theory. Periodic pandemics in China
International relations are an aperiodic system. The number of people
rises and falls almost regularly, epidemics begin and continue, contrary to
human hopes, also in a certain order.
Nevertheless, epidemiologists are well aware that massive outbreaks of
diseases appear, as a rule, with a certain cyclicality - regularly or irregularly,
go on the offensive and retreat periodically.
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Wuhan shows
some interesting parallels to pandemics close to our days with similar
symptoms, which also began in China. In February 1957, the world was
shocked by the 1957–1958 inuenza pandemic, also known as the Asian u,
the starting point of which was the Chinese province of Guizhou. It should
be noted that those infected died from the disease within a few days. At
rst, the symptoms typical of the u appeared: headache and muscle pain,
cough, and fever. And then pneumonia, which arises as a complication, led
to death (Viboud et al., 2016).
Later, scientists found out that the “Asian u” was caused by a new
subtype of the virus A (H2N2), originating from strains of avian and human
inuenza viruses.
During the development of the pandemic, namely from 1957 to 1958, as
a result of infection, according to WHO, 1.1 million people died - according
to unconrmed information (Viboud et al., 2016).
By 1957, the disease had stopped spreading, but a decade later, the virus
mutated and returned, leading to a new pandemic that did not leave the
world from 1968 to 1969. This disease was called the “Hong Kong u” - its
causative agent was, again, a previously unknown subtype of the A (H3N2)
virus (Jester et al., 2020). It began in Hong Kong - while initially he only
walked by sea, infecting the crews and passengers of ships. And since this
is a large port city, it spread rapidly further. Air travel by an estimated
160 million persons during the pandemic facilitated rapid transmission
worldwide (Grais et al., 2020).
Since their emergence, inuenza A(H3N2) viruses have caused
substantial cumulative morbidity and mortality worldwide during seasonal
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Vol. 39 Nº 68 (Enero - Junio 2021): 369-384
inuenza epidemics, greatly exceeding their impact in the rst years of the
pandemic beginning in 1968 (Grais et al., 2020).
“Asian” and “Hong Kong” u disappeared together in 1969, but then
they were not defeated by humans, as scientists believe, the viruses
themselves died out. Infections caused by the virus have not returned for
more than 30 years, so in 2002, no one expected to hear about the Severe
acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus, which later became the
causative agent of a disease called severe acute respiratory syndrome. The
rst case of severe acute respiratory syndrome was reported in November
2002 in Guangdong, China. SARS was the rst known major pandemic
caused by a coronavirus. During the epidemic in 2003, 8 096 cases with
774 deaths had occurred in over 30 countries among ve continents (Cheng
et al., 2007).
6. Critical-point in epidemics of COVID-19 in China.
Stagnation and further recovery according to chaos theory
The radical turning point in the COVID-19 epidemic in China can be
roughly designated March when Wuhan is at the epicenter of the spread
of a new type of coronavirus. It is possible to identify several main reasons
why this particular point was chosen and the prerequisites for the fact
that the epidemic in the PRC will soon come to naught.
On the one hand, it is signicant that by March the last of the 14
mobile hospitals for patients with COVID-19 had been closed. The last
one was the Fangcang makeshift hospital converted from the Wuhan
Sports Center, in Wuhan, Central China’s Hubei Province. The hospital
has shown excellent results: it has admitted that 1 124 patients recovered,
none of the doctors became infected (including 833 discharged and 291
transferred) (Wei, Keyue, 2020).
The need for mobile clinics has disappeared, since even in Wuhan, the
incidence rate has dropped tenfold. If at the height of the epidemic, about
4 000 cases of the disease were recorded daily in China, then on the worst
days, February 14 – 4 050, then as of March 8 – only 46, 17 of them in
Wuhan. Thus, a downward trend in the incidence rate across the country
was clearly demonstrated, and even in the very epicenter of the epidemic
(WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard, 2020) (World Health
Organization (2020c).
On the other hand, economic activity in the PRC against the backdrop
of the coronavirus pneumonia epidemic has been demonstrated. On
March 13, the China Ministry of Industry and Information Technology
claimed state-owned enterprises and large industrial companies had
resumed work at about a 90 percent rate, while small- and medium-sized
378
Natalia Vladimirovna Kovalevskaia, Iuliia Alexandrovna Fedoritenko y William Leahy
Chaos Theory: The Case of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Wuhan, China from the perspective of
international relations
enterprises (SMEs) outside of Hubei Province had resumed work at a 60
percent rate. However, a half of 119 companies surveyed by AmCham China
reported revenue declines of 10 percent or higher on March 25 (US. -China
Economic and security review commission, 2020).
Ofcial data released as of mid-March show a severe decline in output.
Industrial output
dropped 13.5 percent in January and February of 2020—
the largest contraction on record (US. -China Economic and security review
commission, 2020).
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index
(PMI)
dropped to an historic low of 35.7 in February, lower than the 38.8
level recorded during the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Though it rose to 52.0 in
March, China’s National Bureau of Statistics cautioned this expansionary
gure “more reects that more than half of the surveyed enterprises had
returned to work and production,” an improvement over last month, and
“did not mean that China’s economic operation had returned to normal”,
but still trends are relatively good.
The COVID-19 had the prospective to shut down the worldwide ‘ofcial
statistics’ industry as national statistical systems faced large disruptions
in their business operations. Rather than shutting down – the national
statistical system faced the challenges head on – and through innovation,
resiliency and international cooperation were able to ensure the continued
steady ow of ofcial statistics to its citizens at a time when they needed it
the most.
Modern scientic theory of decision making is based mainly on the
classical paradigm of rationality. It searches for optimal solutions in the
context of known results and their probabilities. However, this paradigm
is powerless in the case of radical uncertainty.
Figure 5: source: (Tuckett et al., 2020).
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Vol. 39 Nº 68 (Enero - Junio 2021): 369-384
Left picture. The blue dotted line at time 30 for a limited amount of
available data on the situation (blue crosses) calculated the optimal
statistical match; red line - process model; the cone of possibilities (colored
yellow), due to certain clearly formulated assumptions, turns out to be huge.
Right picture. The same thing, but at the moment of time 105. The huge
cone of possibilities has radically decreased, turning into a narrow strip.
Thus, decision makers cannot make the right decision, since such a
decision simply does not exist at this point in time. Furthermore, all data
are not available, their use to accurately understand what is happening and
how the pandemic is developing is unreliable.
7. What did you state chaos theory and what
recommendations can be given to decision-makers based on
Radical Uncertainty?
In situations like the COVID-19 pandemic, guidance for decision-
makers is extremely limited. It is also necessary during the development
of the situation not to fall into the area of the bifurcation point, when the
decision-making paradigm should be changed.
The rst provision is discussed in detail in Post-normal Pandemics: Why
Covid-19 requires a New Approach to Science, where, using the example
of the COVID-19 pandemic, the futility of attempts to make informed and
accurate decisions from the standpoint of the rational paradigm of science
is shown.
By March, China had a clear and well-functioning health emergency
response system that has made the ght against the virus unprecedentedly
effective. The ght against coronavirus allowed to test the effectiveness of
the public administration reforms implemented by Xi Jinping. It embraced
the entire society of China, starting from the lower levels of self-government,
which made it possible to organize effective control over the situation.
When spring 2020 began the situation was getting more optimistic,
because help started pouring in from all over the world. The epidemic
mechanisms worked out on the example of China can be used in the future
in the context of global instability. It became clear: helping Wuhan is
helping the World. Thousands of medical workers and countless volunteers
arrived from across the country. Japan donated truckloads of food and
medicine (Gilead Sciences, 2020). For the seriously ill, American drug
remdesivir offered new hope, given by Gilead Sciences, a pharmaceutical
company, contributing antiviral expertise and resources to help patients and
communities ghting COVID-19 (Biggeri et al., 2020). But unfraternally,
remdesivir did not live up to expectations. In the spring of 2020, several
clinical trials of remdesivir began in different countries (Norrie, 2020). One
380
Natalia Vladimirovna Kovalevskaia, Iuliia Alexandrovna Fedoritenko y William Leahy
Chaos Theory: The Case of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Wuhan, China from the perspective of
international relations
study, which began in China on evidence-based medicine standards, was
interrupted early because, according to the authors, they could not recruit
the required number of patients. This study, even incomplete, showed no
signicant therapeutic effect for remdesivir therapy, however, the smaller
planned number of patients and early completion of the study did not
provide condence in the result (Wang et al., 2020).
The World Health Organization announced on February 5 a $675 million
response plan through April 2020 to further control the virus’ spread and to
protect states with weak health systems (Albert, 2020).
When the coronavirus has already spread all around Russia produced
a vaccine for widespread use against the novel coronavirus. The Ministry
of health of the Russian Federation on 11 August issued a registration
certicate for a vaccine for the prevention of novel coronavirus infection
COVID-19 developed by the National research centre of epidemiology and
Microbiology named after academician N. F. Gamalei, Russian Ministry of
Health (Logunov et al., 2020).
What happens if you get vaccinated against COVID-19 based on chaos
theory? Robert May, one of the founders of chaos theory, was the rst to
realize that oscillations could be reproduced by a nonlinear model and
became interested in what would happen if the system received a sudden
impulse - a hindrance, such as mass vaccination. It would seem that the
process should smoothly change in the desired direction. In fact, as May
discovered, there would be some very tangible uctuations. Even if the
long-term trend is harshly canceled out, the path to new equilibrium will be
interrupted by astounding upswings (Gleick, 1987).
Conclusion
All these examples demonstrate that the coronavirus pandemic revealed
a high degree of connectivity of humanity, activated small segments of the
audience and gave dynamism to the ows in the political system. Physical
distancing has robbed us of the many opportunities that arise from in-
person interactions, which are crucial during times of uncertainty.
Chaos theory brought new concepts like considered in sufcient
detail self-organized criticality (Ermolina et al., 2020). They allow the
researcher to develop new aspects of social and political science. It allows
to understand that it is expedient to provide not so much a rigid order and
stability as a soft, not catastrophic shift in the system. In other words, the
concept of chaos theory can be used to improve the regulation of the system
in international relations.
COVID-19 and the related economic turmoil has been a reminder that
we cannot plan everything. Nonetheless, challenging times often depend on
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when we stop the story. For example, if a job falls through, we need to take
the long view (Bondarenko et al., 2020). We should attempt to reframe the
situation as an opportunity for growth, for reection, for change, and for
developing resiliency.
Because the space between stimulus and response is where our growth
and serendipity lie – in the long run.
Chaos theory also brings additional methods, based on quantitative
approach, which gives space for analysis of the political systems’ dynamic
by graphic-based tools. They originate in the phase space of a dynamic
system – the attractors and the fractals. The analysis can give practical
accompaniments to the traditional scientic methods. More globally, the
innovative aspects of the chaotic perspective show a promising scientic
potential for analyzing and describing the time-based evolution of public
policies and political institutions, actors, and processes.
Despite the fact, that the use of chaos theory has some advantages, but
it also has some weak points, which should be admitted. Chaos theory is
not very suitable for long-term forecasts; the complexity increases with the
number of actors in the system. Nevertheless, the issue of the methodology
for the long-term development of international relations is one of the
eternal questions of political science.
The question remains open: whether it is possible to predict the
development of macro-social systems, a variety of which is the system of
international relations.
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Vol.39 Nº 68